FXUS63 KIWX 020604 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 104 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow arriving early Monday morning could impact the morning commute, especially around the greater South Bend area. - Snow moves from west to east Monday bringing accumulations of less than 1 inch. - Not quite as cold this week with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens to single-digits. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 A narrow upper-level trough is dropping south through Minnesota and Iowa this afternoon with an area of snow encountering a very dry air mass, characterized by 15F dew point depressions. As a result, very few observing stations are reporting snow beneath radar returns. The area of snow is forecast to fade this afternoon, yet additional returns further northwest are forecast to survive into our area late tonight and through Monday as the trough drops south. Dew points here have already recovered into the teens at some stations with 805-mb warm air advection underway. Light snow for the Monday morning commute, primarily in northwest IN and southwest MI, could result in instances of slippery travel. Limitations to this system include an elevated and poorly saturated dendritic growth zone, along with lackluster moisture and forcing. Snow totals will certainly be less than 1 inch, with the greatest opportunity for accumulation along and north of US 6 as previously mentioned in this space. This system now looks to have exited the Fort Wayne area before the evening commute. Lackluster inversion heights (less then 5kFT) look to limit any lake effect snow chances behind this disturbance. Upper-level heights quickly rebound and warm air advection takes shape Tuesday. Developing low pressure over the Tennessee Valley Wednesday permits Canadian high pressure to move into the Midwest, knocking down temperatures for a day. The next clipper arrives Friday with Arctic High pressure returning for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1253 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions expected to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR in cigs/vsbys as a clipper system continues to move into the area. Current radar does show light returns currently over the western IN/eastern IL border as of 06z Mon. Some uncertainty on how quickly these incoming snow showers begin to reach the surface with the dry air currently in place, however between 12-15z Mon this should begin to happen with KSBN first then KFWA as the disturbance moves eastward. VFR conditions should return to KSBN after 01z Tue while KFWA shall return to MVFR in lowered cigs through the remainder of this TAF period. Winds out of the S-SW this evening veering towards the W-SW through the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Andersen