FXUS63 KIWX 020002

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

702 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light snow arriving early Monday morning could impact the 

  morning commute, especially around the greater South Bend 

  area.



- Snow moves from west to east Monday bringing accumulations of

  less than 1 inch.



- Not quite as cold this week with highs in the 20s and lows in

  the teens to single-digits.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 136 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026



A narrow upper-level trough is dropping south through Minnesota and 

Iowa this afternoon with an area of snow encountering a very 

dry air mass, characterized by 15F dew point depressions. As a 

result, very few observing stations are reporting snow beneath 

radar returns. The area of snow is forecast to fade this 

afternoon, yet additional returns further northwest are forecast

to survive into our area late tonight and through Monday as the

trough drops south. Dew points here have already recovered into

the teens at some stations with 805-mb warm air advection 

underway. 



Light snow for the Monday morning commute, primarily in northwest IN 

and southwest MI, could result in instances of slippery travel. 

Limitations to this system include an elevated and poorly saturated 

dendritic growth zone, along with lackluster moisture and forcing. 

Snow totals will certainly be less than 1 inch, with the greatest 

opportunity for accumulation along and north of US 6 as previously 

mentioned in this space. This system now looks to have exited the 

Fort Wayne area before the evening commute. Lackluster 

inversion heights (less then 5kFT) look to limit any lake effect

snow chances behind this disturbance. 



Upper-level heights quickly rebound and warm air advection takes 

shape Tuesday. Developing low pressure over the Tennessee Valley 

Wednesday permits Canadian high pressure to move into the Midwest, 

knocking down temperatures for a day. The next clipper arrives 

Friday with Arctic High pressure returning for the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 654 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026



Initially VFR conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR as a clipper

system moves through the area. Current reflectivity on radar 

upstream in the IL/Chicago area doesn't appear to be

materializing into light snow at the surface yet per

observations. This will probably be the case as the system runs

into dry air currently lodged over the terminals, however late

tonight into Monday morning we'll begin to see light snow at

KSBN first then KFWA closer to 12-15z. Obs within the deeper

moisture plume upstream have visibilities around 1 1/2SM to

4-5SM, with ceilings of 1500-2500ft for the most part. There are

a few pockets where ceilings are between 400-800ft. Most of the

guidance suggests this will be the case as the system moves into

northern Indiana. Winds out of the S-SW this evening shift

towards the W-SW through the period. 



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Brown

AVIATION...MCD