FXUS63 KIND 092247

AFDIND



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

647 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Briefly cooler today, then warmer temperatures this weekend into 

  next week



- Mainly isolated/scattered showers/t-storms Monday-Wednesday



- Expect warmer than normal conditions w/ moderate humidity late 

  next week



&&



.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...

Issued at 402 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025



Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in 

place over MI, WI and IA. This was providing cool, northeasterly 

surface flow to Central Indiana. Aloft, strong ridging was found 

stretching from NB/SD to the Western Great Lakes to northwestern 

Quebec. This was resulting in dry, northerly flow aloft along with 

lee side subsidence across IL/Indiana/OH. GOES16 shows clear skies 

across Indiana. Dew points were in the upper 30s and lower 40s.



A dry cool front was found stretching across MN and SD, and some 

clouds could be seen on GOES16 with this feature. Another area of 

high pressure was found in the wake of that system over Saskatchewan.



Tonight and Saturday -



Mostly Clear and dry weather is expected tonight and Saturday with 

seasonable temperatures. Models suggest the strong ridging aloft 

will quickly drift east through the region tonight along with the 

the departing high pressure system. Models show dry forecast 

soundings tonight as the high departs. Thus continued mostly clear 

skies will be expected with light winds. Given our low dew points, 

lows in the lower to middle 40s will be expected.



On Saturday, the dry cold front is shown to quickly push across 

Indiana, allowing the secondary area of high pressure to arrive 

across our region. Models suggest the front/cusp area becomes even 

less organized overnight as it approaches and passes on Saturday. 

Again, time heights and forecast soundings show a dry column as 

upper ridging re-establishes itself over the northern plains. This 

results in more lee side subsidence over the western Great Lakes 

spilling toward Indiana on NW flow. Thus a sunny Saturday will be 

expected. Slightly warmer 850mb temps are expected on Saturday. This 

will result slightly warmer high temperatures. Highs in the middle 

70s will be expected.



&&



.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...

Issued at 402 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025



High pressure will settle over the region setting the stage for a 

spectacular weekend. After a chilly start on Saturday...temperatures

will rise through Sunday as surface flow generally swings around 

to W/SW. Deep subsidence over the Ohio Valley supports mostly 

clear skies with the possibility of a subtle increase in clouds 

Saturday night and Sunday morning as a weak boundary washes out 

over the forecast area. Highs in the mid and upper 70s are 

expected both Saturday and Sunday with the potential for some 

locations to be near 80 Sunday afternoon.



Monday through Thursday 



The aforementioned upper low which will lift north and into the Ohio 

Valley by Tuesday and Wednesday...lingering across the region before 

shifting to the northeast. The presence of the feature will generate 

enough forcing aloft to interact with a moist and unstable airmass 

to produce scattered convection focused especially during peak 

heating in the afternoon and early evening. A lack of appreciable 

shear will support pulse intensity and slow moving showers and 

storms. The coolest day will likely be Tuesday in the mid 70s with 

the greatest cloud and convective coverage expected. Both Monday and 

Wednesday will see highs into the lower 80s with lows rising into 

the 60s by midweek. 



The signal for warmer than normal temperatures will continue for 

late next week into next weekend with a potentially more active 

convective regime developing as well. With the passage of a warm 

front Thursday...highs could rise into the mid to possibly upper 80s 

for late next week bringing a distinctly summer feel to central 

Indiana for the first time this year.



&&



.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...

Issued at 647 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025



Impacts: 



- None



Discussion:



Strong high pressure will be in control across the region throughout 

the period. This will lead to clear or mostly clear skies, light and 

occasionally variable winds, and unrestricted visibility.



&&



.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Puma

LONG TERM...Ryan

AVIATION...Nield