FXUS63 KIND 090533 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 133 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Briefly cooler through Friday, then warmer temperatures this weekend into next week - Rain and storm chances return Monday into Wednesday - Warmest air of the year so far possible by late next week && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 Subsidence induced by the emergence of an elongated ridge to the north has pushed convection southward into KY, leaving all of central Indiana dry as of 01Z. This will continue through the night, with skies quickly clearing outside of scattered cirrus decks. Winds are expected to remain slightly more elevated throughout the night (7-10kt) with a low level low pressure center passing to the south. For this reason temps were bumped up a few degrees this evening with the PBL decoupling expected to be delayed slightly. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)... Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 A line of showers and thunderstorms has formed from Terre Haute to Greensburg, slowly crawling southward. Additional showers are also scattered further south within the forecast area. With the slow moving nature of these storms, isolated flash flooding will be a threat in addition to some small hail, mainly across the nearly stationary line of storms. Models show a boundary currently sitting over northern Indiana pushing southward this evening that will finally help to move these storms along and expecting them to move out of the area early tonight. High pressure will start to take over tonight through tomorrow, drifting in from the NW, providing clearer skies albeit slightly below normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)... Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 Ridging will expand over top of a cutoff low across the lower Mississippi Valley and into the region resulting in warm and dry weather for the weekend. The upper low will drift north into the Ohio Valley early next week before diminishing producing scattered diurnal convection. The passage of a warm front by Thursday may bring the warmest weather of the year so far with highs well into the 80s by late next week. Friday Night through the Weekend High pressure will settle over the region setting the stage for a spectacular weekend. After a cooler and breezy day Friday...and a chilly start on Saturday...temperatures will rise through Sunday as surface flow generally swings around to W/SW. Deep subsidence over the Ohio Valley supports mostly clear skies with the possibility of a subtle increase in clouds Saturday night and Sunday morning as a weak boundary washes out over the forecast area. Highs in the mid and upper 70s are expected both Saturday and Sunday with the potential for some locations to be near 80 Sunday afternoon. Monday through Thursday The aforementioned upper low which will lift north and into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday and Wednesday...lingering across the region before shifting to the northeast. The presence of the feature will generate enough forcing aloft to interact with a moist and unstable airmass to produce scattered convection focused especially during peak heating in the afternoon and early evening. A lack of appreciable shear will support pulse intensity and slow moving showers and storms. The coolest day will likely be Tuesday in the mid 70s with the greatest cloud and convective coverage expected. Both Monday and Wednesday will see highs into the lower 80s with lows rising into the 60s by midweek. The signal for warmer than normal temperatures will continue for late next week into next weekend with a potentially more active convective regime developing as well. With the passage of a warmfront Thursday...highs could rise into the mid to possibly upper 80s for late next week bringing a distinctly summer feel to central Indiana for the first time this year. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 133 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 Impacts: - None. Discussion: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Northeasterly winds around 10 knots should persist into the morning hours before tapering off after noon. Winds die down even further becoming light and variable Friday night into Saturday. Cloud cover should be limited to occasional thin cirrus. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Updike SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...Eckhoff