FXUS63 KIND 040246

AFDIND



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

946 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7AM to 7PM today 

  across far SE counties, greatest chance for impacts during the 

  afternoon.



- Chances for above freezing highs late this week and again mid- 

  next week



&&



.FORECAST UPDATE...

Issued at 946 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



Satellite trends show mid level clouds are having a difficult time 

eroding in southern parts of central Indiana owing to weakening 

flow and an upstream vort max moving towards the region. Low 

cloud deck continues to move south 15-20 kts across northern zones

and will fill in the remainder of the clear skies in central 

zones by 05Z. Have gone more pessimistic with the cloud cover 

overnight as a result. The caveat is in the far NW/NC counties 

where a clearing/subsidence zone over southern lower MI should 

move SE and clip this region late tonight (after 09Z). In this 

region, have bumped down the overnight low temps and wind chills 

by a few degrees. For the rest of the forecast area, have 

maintained roughly a blended guidance for lows. Rest of the 

forecast is on track with no pops and winds generally 5-10 kts 

from the N-NE.



&&



.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...

Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



Weak surface cyclogenesis has led to deepening low pressure over 

the southern Ohio Valley throughout today, of which is creating a 

narrow corridor of frontogenesis within southern Indiana. In 

return, banded snowfall has formed over this region, with moderate

snow rates being observed. Further analysis on the specifics of 

this banded snowfall is in the mesoscale section at the top of the

AFD. 



These snowbands are expected to continue throughout the afternoon 

and evening, but will likely be south of the central Indiana CWA 

within the next 3 hours. Still, a quick 1-2 inches is possible in 

places like Seymour and North Vernon before the snow ends. The 

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7PM, but this will 

likely be ended early once the snow exit to the SE. 



Overnight, cold air advection will push in cooler temperatures but a 

consistent broken to overcast stratus deck will likely limit diurnal 

cooling some with lows in the teens to near 10 degrees tomorrow 

morning. Tomorrow will have relatively quiet but cold weather as the 

bulk of the cooler airmass arrives beneath mid-level pressure gains. 

This should result in some clearing, but there will likely still be 

some mid to upper level cloud cover within a strong jet stream.



&&



.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...

Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



An upper trough will be making its way eastward for the end of the 

week before more zonal upper flow moves over central Indiana. This 

weekend into next week may see some ridging at times but models lack 

clear agreement past this weekend. Generally temperatures will trend 

warmer than we have seen in several weeks. Highs on Friday are 

expected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s but a quick moving system 

will drop highs back to the 20s on Saturday before another warming 

trend returns from Sunday and on. 



Dry weather is expected for much of the long term period due 

partially to limited moisture availability but a few passing waves 

would make light precipitation possible at times. The far north 

could see some snow showers early Friday with the passage of a 

frontal system. The next best chance of precip will come at the end 

of the period with the potential for an approaching trough and 

surface low.



&&



.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...

Issued at 628 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



Impacts:



- MVFR ceilings developing across all terminals tonight lasting 

through much of tomorrow



Discussion:



In the wake of the weak storm system that moved over the area in the 

last 12 hours, skies have briefly cleared for all but KBMG. However, 

prevailing N-NE flow will support redevelopment of clouds, 

specifically MVFR ceilings, into the terminals overnight. Some dry 

air may help to scatter out the clouds for a time tomorrow at KLAF 

and KIND, but overall persistence in the low clouds will be the 

rule. A few flurries may develop tomorrow afternoon with some minor 

instability and an approaching weak upper level storm system. 

However, duration of flurries should be too limited to warrant 

mention in the TAFs. Winds will be N-NE 5-10 kts through the period.





&&



.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



UPDATE...Crosbie

SHORT TERM...Updike 

LONG TERM...KF 

AVIATION...Crosbie