FXUS63 KIND 021846

AFDIND



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

246 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warming trend back to the low 90s.



- Heat indices approaching 100 degrees this weekend. 



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast 

Sunday.



&&



.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...

Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025



An MCV over the western corn belt will continue to move SE towards 

Central Indiana through tonight.  Despite the presence of residual 

instability and a moderate cumulus field across the area, strong 

capping inversion centered near 700mb seen on the 12Z ILX sounding 

will prevent any form of convective initiation the remainder of the 

afternoon. There however is a zone of weak mid level instability and 

sufficient lift associated with the MCV for some sprinkles to 

develop across central Indiana overnight as the MCV transits the 

area. For the time being have opted to keep pops around 10 percent, 

low enough for no mention in the zones. Temperatures tonight look to 

be near seasonal norms in the mid-upper 60s. 



For tomorrow, greater instability and increasing WAA/moisture 

convergence ahead of building upper level ridge may support isolated 

to widely scattered TS under otherwise partly cloudy skies. Model 

guidance is in disagreement with the best placement and coverage, so 

for now just going with broad brush 20 pops. Highs look to range 

from the mid 80s to near 90F.



&&



.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...

Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025



More typical summertime weather is expected from Friday through 

Wednesday.



Friday through Sunday Morning....



Models suggest strong ridging aloft over the Plains states to slowly 

pass to the the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday Night. This familiar 

pattern will keep central Indiana protected from forcing dynamics as 

they are steered well to the north. Meanwhile strong surface high 

pressure is expected to set up across the east coast. This will 

allow for a return of hot and humid air to Indiana and the Ohio 

Valley through the weekend, returning daily high temperatures into 

the 90s with uncomfortable heat index values.



Diurnal heating through the day may lead to the development of an 

isolated shower or storm, but confidence for this during these 

afternoons is low. Forecast soundings show thin CAPE values on 

Friday and Saturday. Thus expect the NBM may include some slight 

chance pops on Friday and Saturday afternoons, but most spots should 

remain dry. 



Sunday Afternoon through Monday...



Better chances will be in place on Sunday, but again, coverage 

should be just a bit better due to the greater instability. 

Significantly better CAPE on Sunday afternoon, near 2000 J/KG. 

Furthermore, the models have been trending toward a short wave and an 

associated cold front passing across Indiana as the ridge and high 

pressure departs. This forcing along with the hot and humid air mass 

across the area results in high confidence for showers and storms on 

Sunday and Sunday night. Here, expect the best chances for rain over 

the next 7 days with this system.



The frontal boundary will be lingering over Indiana on Monday. This 

will result in continued chances for showers and storms, 

particularly across southern and eastern parts of Central Indiana.



Tuesday through Wednesday...



Weak ridging across the area is expected to return to Indiana and 

the Great Lakes by Tuesday.  Surface high pressure in place across 

the east coast will once again allow for a southerly flow of warm 

and humid air to reside over Central Indiana. This will result in 

highs at or above seasonal normals in the upper 80s to around 90, 

and lows around 70. Given the high dew points and heating but no 

organized forcing, a diurnal shower or storm may be possible, but 

confidence is low and most locations will remain dry.



&&



.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...

Issued at 1153 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Impacts:



- None



Discussion:  



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure 

will be the dominant weather influence over the region. Satellite 

imagery shows clear skies this afternoon with wispy CI found across 

Central Indiana. Convective temperatures being reached is allowing 

some sct CU development. All of these clouds will be at VFR heights. 



Clouds and winds will diminish this evening and overnight as heating 

is lost. VFR will continue.





&&



.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Crosbie

LONG TERM...Puma

AVIATION...Puma