FXUS63 KILX 272325 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 625 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There continues to be a trend southward in Wednesday's storm track, shifting the greater probabilities for beneficial rainfall more towards southern Illinois. NBM has a 50-70% chance over 0.75 inch rain along and south of a Jacksonville to Robinson line. Wednesday will be blustery with gusty NE winds 25-35 mph areawide. - Dry and seasonably cool weather will return for Halloween trick or treaters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Radar mosaic shows isolated light showers southeast of I-70 at mid afternoon and to push se of CWA toward early evening as short wave/upper level low along the western KY/TN border pushes further away from IL. Nearly sunny skies prevailed north of I-72 with mostly cloudy skies south with cloudy skies southeast of I-70. Temps ranged from 60-65F except 50s south of I-70 with Flora at 52F and Mt Carmel airport 53F. Large 1035 mb Canadian high pressure over Quebec will continue to ridge sw into the Great Lakes and generally keeping much of CWA dry through tonight. Pressure gradient giving breezy ENE winds gusting 18-25 mph over central IL. Latest CAMS show a few light rain showers developing over central IL on Tue morning and becoming more widespread during Tue afternoon especially west of I-57 as surface low/trof moves into MO by late Tue. The 12Z forecast models continue southern trend of deepening surface low in lower TN river valley on Wed along with a strong cutoff 500 mb low near 543-545 dm moving into the southern TN river valley during Wed. Highest rain chances to be over western/sw CWA Tue night and over southeast IL on Wed as blustery NE winds gusting 25-35 mph develop. Rain chances diminish from nw to se during Wed night, moving out quicker than earlier forecasts due to further south movement of low pressure system. NBM has 50-70% chance of over three quarter inch rain from Jacksonville to Robinson south from Tue afternoon through Wed evening, with over 1 inch possible from highway 50 south. Highs Tue in the upper 50s to near 60F (mildest in eastern IL). Cooler highs Wed in the lower 50s southeast IL and upper 50s nw of the IL river where clouds decrease during Wed afternoon. We have chance of showers lingering se of I-55 Wed evening then just 20-30% pops overnight Wed night in eastern IL. Generally dry conditions expected over CWA on Thu into Fri night along with seasonable temperatures. A northern stream short wave trof dropping southeast into IL late Fri night into Saturday could bring small chances of light rain showers and more cloud cover during this weekend. Cool highs Sat in the lower 50s, with mid 50s southeast of I-70 and mostly mid 50s for highs Sunday. Lows Sat night in the mid 30s. In the Caribbean, Cat 5 Hurricane Melissa with powerful 175 mph winds at 1 pm cdt, was 145 miles southwest of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 3 mph. Melissa is forecast to turn north to northeast and strike southwest to south central Jamaican coast by early Tue morning as a catastrophic Cat 5 hurricane. Then accelerate and track northeast into southeastern Cuba during Tuesday night as a Cat 3 hurricane. Between 15-30 inches of rainfall with up to 40 inches possible over Jamaica in additional to the catastrophic winds. Hurricane Gilbert a cat 3 was strongest hurricane so far to hit Jamaica (east coast) on Sep 12th, 1988. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for updates on Hurricane Melissa at... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov 07 && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A developing surface low will approach the terminals Tuesday. East winds and VFR conditions will prevail this evening and overnight, but ahead of the low, expect MVFR ceilings to begin to overspread central Illinois Tuesday morning and will likely persist through the remainder of the period. Some very light rain or sprinkles will be possible through the day Tuesday, but more widespread steady rain will move across the area Tuesday evening and overnight. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$