FXUS63 KILX 221826 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 126 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... There is a Marginal to Slight Risk (Level 1 to 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this evening near a cold front moving into southeast IL. Hazards include locally damaging wind gusts, large hail, and potential for an isolated tornado. - Gusty (30-40 mph) north winds will bring a seasonably cool airmass back into the region tonight, with lows reaching the lower 30s. Temperatures will gradually rebound Monday through Thursday, with highs in the lower 50s Monday, increasing to lower 80s by Thursday. - Another chance (40-60%) for showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front Thursday. There is at least a low severe thunderstorm risk. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 A cold front has advanced southward to the vicinity of I-72 as of 1 PM, with strong capping still preventing thunderstorm activity. Hi- res models indicate this cap should be overcome around 6 pm as the front reaches the vicinity of I-70, allowing a few strong cells to form. SPC continues a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms south of I-72, including 2% tornado probabilities and potential for golfball or larger size hail in the event of an isolated supercell from around I-70 southward. North of the front, the severe thunderstorm threat will continue, although the risk would transition to more of a threat for 1 inch diameter hail. Gusty north-northeast winds of 20-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph will continue into the evening behind the cold front as showers taper off from northwest to southeast by midnight. Behind today's cold front, lows will dip to the lower 30s across most of the area tonight, and only reach the lower 50s Monday, around a 30 degree drop from the past few days. Temperatures will climb gradually through Thursday, with around 60 forecast for Tuesday, 70 for Wednesday, and lower 80s forecast for Thursday. A weak disturbance Wednesday night could bring a low chance for showers and thunderstorms, but the next significant weather feature is another cold front timed for later on Thursday, apparently with similar CAPE/shear parameter space ahead of the front as today's cold front. Although SPC has not indicated over a mentionable 15 percent severe weather potential, at least lower probabilities appear in play. Temperatures will drop drastically again behind this front, with lows dipping into the 30s by Friday morning, and highs only reaching the upper 40s Friday. A brief change to snow north of I-70 is possible as precipitation is ending Thursday night. A gradual warmup is expected over the weekend. 37 && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Mostly VFR conditions are expected over the upcoming 24 hours, however sct shra/tsra could form close to but south of the I-72 terminals KSPI-KDEC-KCMI around 22Z-01Z. Have only included VCSH at KCMI at this time. Low cloud cover associated with NNE flow from Lake Michigan could affect KCMI after 04Z, and have maintained MVFR cigs for this feature. Winds becoming NNE 15-22 kts with gusts 25-30 kts by 20Z, then gradually tapering off through the night. Expecting NNE winds 8-12 kts by 08Z-10Z. 37 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$