FXUS63 KILX 092306 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 606 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fair weather will continue over central and southeast IL through Sunday with a 30-60% chance of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms returning both Monday and Tuesday. - Hottest temperatures so far this year (upper 80s to near 90) are forecast on Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Mid afternoon surface map shows 1023-1025 mb high pressure from lower MI and Lake MI into southeast IA and into ne KS. NE flow over CWA bringing in dry and seasonably cooler air over central/se IL today. Temps were in the upper 60s to near 70F at 2 pm with dry dewpoints in the upper 20s to mid 30s north of I-72 and upper 30s to near 40 south of I-72. RH's were as low as 19% in LaSalle and Galesburg where dewpoints in the mid 20s. Surface ridge over western Great Lakes to have part of its ridge shift southward over central IL overnight into Sat morning. This will provide fair wx through Saturday with just some passing high cirrus/contrail clouds. Seasonably cool lows overnight in the low to mid 40s, with upper 40s from Peoria north. Warmer highs Sat in the lower 80s north of I-72 and mid 70s in southeast IL. A backdoor cold front to push SSW over central IL late Sat afternoon and Sat evening with breezy NE winds gusting 20-25 mph marking its passage. This boundary passes through dry with limited moisture to work with. Lows Sat night in the mid to upper 40s with areas from Springfield and southeast IL around 50F. The boundary weakens/dissolves by Sunday morning while upper level low near LA lifts some clouds northward into se IL during Sat night and into central IL during Sunday but still partly to mostly sunny overall. Highs Sunday in the upper 70s to around 80F so a pretty nice Mothers Day weekend shaping up. Upper level low slowly lifting northward toward Memphis by sunset Monday to increase shower chances from south to north during the day Monday with isolated thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon/evening. Likely chances of convection in southeast IL Mon afternoon, but weak shear and instability so risk of severe storms is quite low. Highs Mon range from lower 70s in southeast IL where more clouds and showers around, to upper 70s/lower 80s from I-72 north, warmest northern CWA where just 20-30% chance of convection Mon afternoon into early Mon evening. Weak upper level low 570 dm is near southern IL on Tue and to continue chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tue over central/se IL. Highs in the mid to upper 70s Tue with IL river valley around 80F to lower 80s. Upper level ridge shifts eastward into the MS river valley Wed pushing upper level low into the eastern Ohio river valley along with better chances of convection east of IL. We have 20-30% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in eastern IL Wed afternoon. Highs Wed in the low to mid 80s, warmest from I-55 nw. Warm front lifts north across CWA on Thu with nearby upper level ridge. Blended models have slight chance of convection Thu afternoon/evening. Very warm highs Thu in the upper 80s to around 90F and likely the warmest day of the season. Warm highs in the mid to upper 80s continue Friday along with chances of showers and thunderstorms Fri afternoon into Fri night. 07 && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period, with only some scattered high clouds. While winds will be light and variable much of the time, a cold front coming in from the northeast will result in wind speeds picking up to about 10-15 knots from the northeast late in the afternoon. Geelhart && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$