FXUS63 KILX 091948 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 248 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fair weather will continue over central and southeast IL through Sunday with a 30-60% chance of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms returning both Monday and Tuesday. - Hottest temperatures so far this year (upper 80s to near 90) are forecast on Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Mid afternoon surface map shows 1023-1025 mb high pressure from lower MI and Lake MI into southeast IA and into ne KS. NE flow over CWA bringing in dry and seasonably cooler air over central/se IL today. Temps were in the upper 60s to near 70F at 2 pm with dry dewpoints in the upper 20s to mid 30s north of I-72 and upper 30s to near 40 south of I-72. RH's were as low as 19% in LaSalle and Galesburg where dewpoints in the mid 20s. Surface ridge over western Great Lakes to have part of its ridge shift southward over central IL overnight into Sat morning. This will provide fair wx through Saturday with just some passing high cirrus/contrail clouds. Seasonably cool lows overnight in the low to mid 40s, with upper 40s from Peoria north. Warmer highs Sat in the lower 80s north of I-72 and mid 70s in southeast IL. A backdoor cold front to push SSW over central IL late Sat afternoon and Sat evening with breezy NE winds gusting 20-25 mph marking its passage. This boundary passes through dry with limited moisture to work with. Lows Sat night in the mid to upper 40s with areas from Springfield and southeast IL around 50F. The boundary weakens/dissolves by Sunday morning while upper level low near LA lifts some clouds northward into se IL during Sat night and into central IL during Sunday but still partly to mostly sunny overall. Highs Sunday in the upper 70s to around 80F so a pretty nice Mothers Day weekend shaping up. Upper level low slowly lifting northward toward Memphis by sunset Monday to increase shower chances from south to north during the day Monday with isolated thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon/evening. Likely chances of convection in southeast IL Mon afternoon, but weak shear and instability so risk of severe storms is quite low. Highs Mon range from lower 70s in southeast IL where more clouds and showers around, to upper 70s/lower 80s from I-72 north, warmest northern CWA where just 20-30% chance of convection Mon afternoon into early Mon evening. Weak upper level low 570 dm is near southern IL on Tue and to continue chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tue over central/se IL. Highs in the mid to upper 70s Tue with IL river valley around 80F to lower 80s. Upper level ridge shifts eastward into the MS river valley Wed pushing upper level low into the eastern Ohio river valley along with better chances of convection east of IL. We have 20-30% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in eastern IL Wed afternoon. Highs Wed in the low to mid 80s, warmest from I-55 nw. Warm front lifts north across CWA on Thu with nearby upper level ridge. Blended models have slight chance of convection Thu afternoon/evening. Very warm highs Thu in the upper 80s to around 90F and likely the warmest day of the season. Warm highs in the mid to upper 80s continue Friday along with chances of showers and thunderstorms Fri afternoon into Fri night. 07 && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL airports through 18Z/1 pm Saturday. 1023-1025 mb high pressure ridge from Lake MI sw through se Iowa, will drift southward over central IL overnight, while weak cold front slips southward into northern IL during midday Saturday, reaching near I-80 by 18Z/1 pm Saturday. Will only see a few passing thin cirrus clouds next 24 hours as low and mid levels remain quite dry and stable. Strong upper level ridge over the Rockies has a part of it nosing eastward into IL through Saturday ensuring fair weather. NE winds 7-12 kts with a few gusts around 15 kts at BMI and CMI this afternoon to diminish light at sundown, with light NE winds this evening becoming variable overnight. Lights winds veer NW to north during mid/late Sat morning and staying under 10 kts. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$