FXUS63 KILX 091712 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1212 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low-impact spring weather to continue through Sunday with afternoon rain chances (30-50%) returning both Monday and Tuesday. - Hottest temperatures so far this year (upper 80s) are forecast by Wednesday and Thursday. - The risk of severe weather returns late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Atmospheric blocking will lead to a stagnation of weather conditions through the weekend. In this case, the stagnation will be quite pleasant; characterized by abundant sunshine, seasonal warmth, low humidity, and light winds. The blocking pattern will begin to break down Sunday night as a western trough carves into the western US. This will result in the upper- level low, which had been anchored over the southern US, to open and eventually lift toward the Ohio River Valley by Monday afternoon. As this feature becomes an open wave and begins to rejoin the main belt of westerlies, it will fling some Gulf moisture our way. The influx of humidity and broad synoptic lift will bring diurnally driven showers to the region both Monday and Tuesday, and we couldn't rule out an isolated thunderstorm at this point, though the chance on either day is quite low (< 20%). Hotter temperatures (upper 80s) will filter into the region by Wednesday and Thursday, but precip chances become less favorable then as the upper wave departs and subsidence works in ahead of a ridge axis. It's not until Thursday evening or Friday when the pattern begins to flash a more active signal, as the western trough lifts across the Northern Plains and helps force a cold front across the Mid- Mississippi Valley. At current time, the CAPE/Shear space ahead of that front looks favorable for severe weather, and a few of the machine- learning (CSU & NCAR) and analog (CIPS) tools are already honing in on the threat. The synoptic pattern doesn't scream outbreak, but would anticipate some severe risk nevertheless. MJA && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL airports through 18Z/1 pm Saturday. 1023-1025 mb high pressure ridge from Lake MI sw through se Iowa, will drift southward over central IL overnight, while weak cold front slips southward into northern IL during midday Saturday, reaching near I-80 by 18Z/1 pm Saturday. Will only see a few passing thin cirrus clouds next 24 hours as low and mid levels remain quite dry and stable. Strong upper level ridge over the Rockies has a part of it nosing eastward into IL through Saturday ensuring fair weather. NE winds 7-12 kts with a few gusts around 15 kts at BMI and CMI this afternoon to diminish light at sundown, with light NE winds this evening becoming variable overnight. Lights winds veer NW to north during mid/late Sat morning and staying under 10 kts. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$