FXUS63 KILX 091017 CCA

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

515 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Low-impact spring weather to continue through Sunday with

  afternoon rain chances (30-50%) returning both Monday and 

  Tuesday.



- Hottest temperatures so far this year (upper 80s) are forecast 

  by Wednesday and Thursday.



- The risk of severe weather returns late next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Atmospheric blocking will lead to a stagnation of weather

conditions through the weekend. In this case, the stagnation will

be quite pleasant; characterized by abundant sunshine, seasonal 

warmth, low humidity, and light winds.  



The blocking pattern will begin to break down Sunday night as a

western trough carves into the western US. This will result in 

the upper- level low, which had been anchored over the southern 

US, to open and eventually lift toward the Ohio River Valley by 

Monday afternoon. As this feature becomes an open wave and begins

to rejoin the main belt of westerlies, it will fling some Gulf 

moisture our way. The influx of humidity and broad synoptic lift 

will bring diurnally driven showers to the region both Monday and 

Tuesday, and we couldn't rule out an isolated thunderstorm at this

point, though the chance on either day is quite low (< 20%).



Hotter temperatures (upper 80s) will filter into the region by 

Wednesday and Thursday, but precip chances become less favorable

then as the upper wave departs and subsidence works in ahead of a 

ridge axis. It's not until Thursday evening or Friday when the 

pattern begins to flash a more active signal, as the western trough 

lifts across the Northern Plains and helps force a cold front across 

the Mid- Mississippi Valley. At current time, the CAPE/Shear space 

ahead of that front looks favorable for severe weather, and a few of 

the machine- learning (CSU & NCAR) and analog (CIPS) tools are 

already honing in on the threat. The synoptic pattern doesn't scream 

outbreak, but would anticipate some severe risk nevertheless.



MJA



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)

Issued at 513 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period as a ridge of

high pressure slowly builds across the region. Surface winds will

maintain a northeast component today, generally 10 kts or less,

before becoming light and variable tonight.



MJA



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$