FXUS63 KILX 090459

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1159 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Scattered showers and storms will continue through late this

 afternoon south of I-72. Severe weather is not expected though 

 slow storm motions may result in localized pockets of heavy 

 rainfall.



-A mostly dry and quiet weekend will be replaced by additional 

 rainfall chances early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



A surface front draped over southern Illinois has been the focus for 

showers and storms so far this afternoon with more scattered 

activity north of there. CAMs have struggled to depict how far north 

showers and storms are actually occurring so far today with activity 

roughly south of the I-72 corridor as of 2 pm. Weak flow and limited 

instability has kept storms sub-severe up to this point, but slow 

storm motions could result in pockets of heavy rainfall and 

localized flooding through the remainder of this afternoon.



Water vapor imagery shows the once cutoff low associated with the 

previously mentioned front over the Ohio Valley with an expansive 

area of upper ridging over the western and central US. The upper 

ridge will spill into the middle Mississippi Valley tonight, 

acting to kick the upper low east of here with a portion of it 

becoming pinched off and shunted toward the Gulf coast. Surface 

high pressure will settle southward overnight into Friday, with 

surface ridging controlling the weather pattern through the 

majority of the weekend. Although the NBM still seems to be 

running a little warm with high temperatures this weekend, 

ensemble guidance still favors above normal values both Saturday 

and Sunday with highs looking to peak in the middle to upper 70s. 

Lows will be on the cool side the next few mornings under light 

winds and clear skies with more seasonal values returning by 

Sunday morning. 



The previously mentioned cutoff low that will linger along the Gulf 

coast states this weekend will meander northward at the start of the 

new week, bringing our next chance for precipitation to parts of the 

area Monday and Tuesday. Upper ridging will fill in behind this 

feature and turn things drier and much warmer for mid to late

week.



NMA



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period as a ridge of

high pressure slowly builds across the region. Surface winds will

maintain a northeast component, generally 10 kts or less through

Friday.



MJA



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$