FXUS63 KILX 050728

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

128 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Lingering Showers North Today: Isolated to scattered light

  rain showers will affect areas near and north of Interstate 74

  through this evening, bringing little to no measurable

  accumulation. 



- Widespread Frost and Freeze This Weekend: High confidence in

  cold overnight temperatures falling into the lower 30s Friday

  night and Saturday night. 

 

- Extended Dry Stretch Ahead: Dry and quiet weather with plenty

  of sunshine will prevail through at least the middle of next 

  week as daytime highs rebound into the 60s by Monday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 119 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



Water vapor imagery highlights a potent 500 mb shortwave trough

digging equatorward from Ontario into the Great Lakes basin. As

this vorticity maximum phases with the broader cyclonic flow, a

slow-moving surface low will pivot its wrap-around moisture 

plume and deformation axis back southwestward across central and

eastern Illinois. This setup will maintain overcast skies and 

generate scattered to periodic light rain showers, mostly near 

and north of the I-74 corridor.



A sharpening baroclinic zone and its accompanying cold front 

will advance southward through the state tonight. Strong cold 

air advection in its wake will usher in a significantly cooler, 

drier continental polar (cP) air mass to finish the workweek.



Deep-layer northwesterly flow following the departing trough 

will rapidly scour out remaining low-level moisture by Friday 

morning. An expansive 1024 mb surface high centered over the 

Canadian Prairies will build southeastward into the Midwest for 

the weekend, establishing a prolonged stretch of tranquil autumn

weather.



Thermal profiles will feel chilly early Friday, with 850 mb 

temperatures dropping into the -5C to -2C range. Sensible 

weather over the weekend will feature crisp daytime highs in the

low-to-mid 50s under mostly sunny skies. Efficient nighttime 

radiational cooling—driven by light winds and a clear, dry 

boundary layer—will foster widespread frost, as overnight lows 

fall into the lower 30s across the region. Agricultural and 

late-season gardening interests should prepare for widespread 

frost/freeze potential Friday night and Saturday night.



Looking ahead to next week, ensemble consensus (GEFS/EPS) shows

strong agreement on an amplified synoptic pattern anchored by 

persistent mid/upper-level ridging over the central CONUS, 

flanked by an anomalous cut-off low meandering over the Deep 

South and Gulf Coast. This blocking regime will limit poleward 

Gulf moisture transport, securing dry and quiet weather through 

mid-week. As the air mass modifies and 500 mb heights rise, 

temperatures will gradually moderate back into the 60s starting 

Monday.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1013 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026



A large area of broken ceilings with bases near 3k feet will

dominate the area tonight. Guidance shows highest probability

for breaks in the MVFR ceilings near I-72 especially at KSPI 

into Thursday morning. An upper level wave moving in from the 

northwest will bring a renewed round of MVFR ceilings for late 

Thu morning through the evening. As the wave moves overhead,

scattered -SHRA will likely develop during the afternoon to

evening, and may be accompanied by IFR ceilings and MVFR

visibility at times. Southwest winds will be persistent through

Thu afternoon, near 10 kt tonight, then gusts increasing to 

around 20 kt for afternoon. A cold front will veer winds to the

west and northwest through Thursday evening.



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



KEY MESSAGES...MJA

DISCUSSION...MJA

AVIATION...25