FXUS63 KILX 031905

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

105 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cold temperatures will impact the region Wednesday morning and

  Thursday morning. Expect morning lows in the single digits to

  low teens.



- A modest warming trend begins Thursday and peaks Friday, with an

  80-95% chance of temps above freezing west of I-55 Thursday and 

  a greater than 95% chance of temperatures rising above freezing 

  areawide Friday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 100 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



NEAR-TERM (Tonight through Wednesday): DRY AND COLD



A 1030mb surface high pressure system, currently situated over 

the Upper Midwest, will be the dominant weather feature through 

mid-week. This high will slowly drift southeast, inching toward 

and across Central Illinois on Wednesday and Thursday. This setup 

will maintain dry conditions across the region. However, an 

initial surge of colder air will accompany the high, holding highs

on Wednesday only in the 20s. Overnight lows will be quite cold, 

dropping into the single digits to low teens both Wednesday 

morning and again Wednesday night.



LATE-WEEK WARM-UP (Thursday into Friday): MILDER TEMPS AND

CONTINUED DRY



A strong downsloping event is forecast to develop on the lee side

of the northern Rockies starting late tonight, which will induce 

substantial warming aloft. 850mb temperatures are forecast to warm

dramatically to 10-15C across portions of southern Alberta into 

Montana. This much warmer airmass will then translate southeast, 

clipping portions of Central Illinois starting Thursday into early

Friday, ahead of an approaching cold front.



The result will be a late-week warm-up. Widespread temperatures 

above the freezing mark are expected (NBM 80-95% probability) west

of I-55 on Thursday, becoming areawide (NBM >95% probability) on 

Friday before the cold front pushes through. NBM mean MaxT Friday 

ranges from the mid 40s near the lower Illinois River Valley to 

upper 30s across east central Illinois. Furthermore, the 

downsloping effect will produce a dry air mass. This will keep the

probability of any precipitation with the frontal passage quite 

low, currently forecast at less than 10%.



LONG-TERM (Friday Night through the Weekend): RETURN TO NEAR- 

NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES



Another strong area of high pressure will build in behind the 

cold front, tracking from the Canadian Prairies Friday toward the 

Midwest over the weekend. Temperatures will return closer to 

seasonal norms over the weekend with highs generally in the 30s 

and lows in the 20s.



Precipitation chances remain low under the influence of the 

surface ridge, but there is some uncertainty concerning a 

potential weak system. Despite poor run-to-run continuity, the GFS

continues to hint at a fast-moving clipper system over the 

weekend that could bring light snow to portions of the region. It 

is too early to pin down where or how much this weak wave might 

bring, but it bears watching in the meantime. Current NBM 48-hour 

probability for accumulating snowfall (>0.1 inches) is around 20% 

northeast of a Bloomington to Paris line, with the NBM 95th 

percentile snowfall only around an inch for those same areas. This

is generally in line with the swath of around 0.10 inch QPF from 

the deterministic GFS. The forecast will be monitored for any 

upward trends in snow potential.



Deubelbeiss



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)

Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



A band of light snow will continue to drift across east-central

Illinois this afternoon. Recent observations associated with this

snow band have indicated a brief dip to MVFR at KBMI, mainly due 

to ceilings in the 1-3 kft range. Once the band passes, the

dominant ceilings returns to around 10 kft. The KCMI terminal has

the next best chance of seeing lower ceilings as a result of this

snow band, and this has been annotated with a brief tempo group 

from 19z-21z. 



By late tonight, a shallow fetch of moisture from Lake Michigan

could advect southwestward toward the KCMI & KDEC terminals. There

is currently a low (30-50%) chance for MVFR ceilings to arrive at

these sites between 03z-09z.



Elsewhere across central Illinois, VFR conditions are currently 

in place and expected to persist through the remainder of this 

TAF period amid a light north wind.



MJA



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$