FXUS63 KILX 022314

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

614 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Heat and humidity will gradually increase into the weekend. By 

Friday, highs will be back in the low to mid 90s with heat indices 

around 100 degrees.



- 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into 

Friday morning. More chances arrive late Saturday as a cold front 

slides into the state. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Highs have been in the mid to upper 80s so far today, but that will 

change for the end of the week. The temperatures are set to continue 

to gradually warm with increasing humidity. Friday and Saturday, 

highs will be back in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 

100 degrees. 



Mainly, the forecast will be dry through late Saturday, but a 20% 

chance for thunderstorms was introduced for tomorrow evening into 

Friday morning. A pulse along the ridge with pass north of the 

area, and could potentially bring showers and thunderstorms to the

forecast area if it comes further south. <1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and

around 30 knots of shear could support thunderstorm development,

if they can break through the cap. SPC has a marginal risk for 

severe weather just half a county to the north of Marshall County.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in if they will impact 

central IL but didn't want any possible storms to come as a 

surprise. 



The 4th of July (Friday) should be dry by the time fireworks are set 

to start. By late Saturday, a slow moving cold front will sag across 

the forecast area, bringing showers and thunderstorms with it. 

Locally heavy rain is looking probable with this wave as PWATs are 

showing values of 2.0-2.2 inches. The chance for showers and 

thunderstorms will continue into the first half of the new week. 

More seasonable temperatures are in store for the new week behind 

the cold front.



Copple



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)

Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



A shortwave trough will bring a period of (VFR) ceilings around

FL120 for the next several hours, however precipitation is not

anticipated (despite light radar returns) due to prolific dry air

in the low levels. Westerly winds will become light and fickle

later this evening, becoming predominantly southwesterly but only

increasing to 5-8 kt late tomorrow morning, when diurnal cu 

return around FL050.



Bumgardner



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$