FXUS63 KICT 271935

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

235 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain arrives tonight and lasts into Wednesday morning.



- Strong winds Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, with gusts up

  to 50 mph possible early Wednesday morning.



- Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures continue through the

  work week, with subfreezing low temperatures possible in

  central Kansas beginning Wednesday night.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Current water vapor imagery depicts a digging mid/upper wave 

entering the Northern Plains with the associated surface low 

situated in western South Dakota. A cold front spanning from this 

surface feature to the High Plains of Colorado is anticipated to 

move southeast through the rest of the day today and into the 

overnight hours. Lift along this boundary will allow for scattered 

showers to return to the forecast area tonight and last through 

Tuesday. Model soundings suggest little instability over the area 

which will preclude chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. 

However, CAPE around 300-500 J/kg in southern Kansas may allow for a 

few rumbles of thunder through Tuesday morning. Otherwise, rain will 

end from west to east by Wednesday morning. 



Northwest flow aloft is progged to prevail following the passage of 

this latest system and will keep the region dry through the 

upcoming weekend. 



WINDS:



A tightening surface pressure gradient following in the wake of 

tonight's frontal passage will allow for strong north winds in the 

trailing airmass. Model soundings continue to point to mixing up to 

800 mb amid a 50-kt LLJ overhead. As such, strong north winds with 

sustained speeds in the 20-30 mph range and gusts up to 40 mph are 

possible Tuesday afternoon. Limited decoupling Tuesday night will 

allow for continued gusty winds with strengthening low-level flow 

resulting in gusts up to 50 mph, especially early Wednesday morning. 

Winds are anticipated to subside by late Wednesday afternoon as the 

potent LLJ tracks southward into Oklahoma.



TEMPERATURES:



High temperatures in the 50s are forecast through the work week 

before values in the 60s return this weekend. Overnight lows in

40s and low 50s are expected tonight before cooler air arrives 

Tuesday night. Areas in central Kansas are expected to see 

overnight temperatures at/below freezing beginning Wednesday 

night and lasting to the end of the week while the rest of the

forecast area dips into the middle to upper 30s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Low clouds are expected to remain stubborn for much of the

period. Light southeasterly winds at 5-10 kt will continue at

all sites into the overnight hours. A strong cold front will

move across the terminals late tonight through Tuesday morning.

This will shift winds to the northwest at 10-15 kt with gusts

near 25 kt expected. In addition, a band of showers/storms will

move across the entire area with a few hours (2-4 hours) of

SHRA. Finally, CIGS are expected to quickly to return to VFR

behind the frontal passage. Wind gusts are expected to further

increase after 12Z at all sites except CNU, with gusts near 35 

kt probable.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JWK

AVIATION...BRF