FXUS63 KICT 271739

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

1239 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Areas of fog and light drizzle expected again this morning.



- More rain tonight and into Wednesday, with strong winds 

  arriving by Tuesday afternoon.



- Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures this week, with

  subfreezing low temperatures possible in central Kansas on 

  Wednesday night.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Currently, an upper level trough is located to our east over the 

Middle Mississippi Valley as it exits the region and the next trough 

is currently digging into the Northern Plains. The surface low that 

slowly traversed the Central Plains continues to march to the east 

into the Lower Mississippi Valley as high pressure begins to build 

over the region. An extremely moist airmass remains anchored in 

place and much of the state will remained socked in low clouds and 

mist/fog through the morning hours due to the low temperature and 

dewpoint spreads.



The next trough will dig into the Central Plains later tonight and 

will send a cold front sweeping across the forecast area after 

midnight. This boundary will bring more rain and isolated 

thunderstorm chances to the area as a broken line of convection 

develops ahead of the front in central Kansas and progresses 

southeastward through the morning and afternoon hours. Instability 

with this system looks minimal, so it is expected that most activity 

will remain showery, though a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled 

out. 



As a piece of energy from the upper-level trough separates from the 

main feature, it will dive across the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday 

into Wednesday. The corresponding surface low will deepen 

significantly to our east and the pressure gradient across the state 

will tighten in response. This will lead to very windy conditions 

for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Sustained winds across the 

forecast area up to 30 mph and gusts in excess of 40 mph. Because of 

this lingering low to our east, a few pesky showers will continue to 

impact eastern Kansas through Tuesday night and into the day 

Wednesday. As the low slowly drifts east into the Tennessee Valley 

on Wednesday night, the showers will come to an end for southeast 

Kansas and the winds will subside.



Behind this system, northwest flow returns with only a few minor 

perturbations passing over the region. Dry weather and only a 

few clouds are expected for the end of the week into the 

weekend.



Temperatures throughout the upcoming work week will remain 

seasonably cool with afternoon highs reaching into the 50s to lower 

60s. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the 40s to lower 50s. 

With the passage of the frontal boundary on Tuesday, overnight lows 

for Tuesday night through the end of the week will dip into 30s for 

most spots. Locations in central Kansas could see sub-freezing 

temperatures on Wednesday night. A slight warmup is possible for 

next weekend as an upper-level ridge builds into the region when we 

could see highs rebound into the upper 60s to lower 70s by

Sunday with lows remaining in 40s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Low clouds are expected to remain stubborn for much of the

period. Light southeasterly winds at 5-10 kt will continue at

all sites into the overnight hours. A strong cold front will

move across the terminals late tonight through Tuesday morning.

This will shift winds to the northwest at 10-15 kt with gusts

near 25 kt expected. In addition, a band of showers/storms will

move across the entire area with a few hours (2-4 hours) of

SHRA. Finally, CIGS are expected to quickly to return to VFR

behind the frontal passage. Wind gusts are expected to further

increase after 12Z at all sites except CNU, with gusts near 35 

kt probable. 



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AMD

AVIATION...BRF