FXUS63 KICT 270527

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

1227 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



...Updated Aviation Discussion...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Areas of fog and light drizzle expected to last into Monday

  morning.



- Rainy Monday night into Wednesday, with strong winds arriving

  by Tuesday afternoon.



- Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures this week, with

  subfreezing low temperatures possible in central Kansas 

  beginning Wednesday night.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon highlight a 

mid/upper trough centered over the Ozarks and slowly drifting 

eastward. The associated surface low sits in southeast Kansas and 

has allowed for continued upslope flow promoting low clouds and 

light drizzle/fog throughout the forecast area so far today. These 

are anticipated to continue into tonight and Monday morning thanks 

to low surface temp/dew spreads and minimal change to the current 

airmass. With ample cloud coverage offering little to no chance for 

radiating out at the surface, low temperatures tonight are forecast 

to only dip into the low 50s.



PRECIPITATION:



A shortwave racing eastward across the Northern Intermountain is 

progged to eject into the Northern/Central Plains Monday afternoon 

and evening. With limited instability across the area, activity is 

mainly expected to be showery as activity develops out ahead of the 

boundary Monday night into central Kansas. Coverage will increase 

across the forecast area as the front and surface low sink to the 

southeast by Tuesday morning, with most guidance carrying the system 

out of Kansas and into Missouri and Arkansas late Tuesday night into 

Wednesday. Mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will allow for 

modest rainfall accumulations, with NBM mean expected totals in the 

0.25"-0.50" range.



Following the passage of this system, the resuming of northwest flow 

aloft will keep the region dry through the end of the week. 



WINDS:



A tightening surface pressure gradient in the wake of Monday night's 

frontal passage will allow for strong north winds in the trailing 

airmass. Point soundings indicate a high likelihood of deep mixing 

to an 800-mb 45-kt jet positioned over the Central Plains by Tuesday 

afternoon. Consequently, sustained surface speeds around 30 mph and 

gusts up to 45-50 mph are expected throughout much of the area 

through Wednesday. These are expected to subside later Wednesday 

evening as the surface low departs from the area and into the 

southeast CONUS.



TEMPERATURES:



High temperatures around 60 are forecast for the entire area on 

Monday prior to the arrival of the aforementioned cold front later 

in the evening. Within the cooler arriving airmass, highs in the 50s 

are expected through Thursday. Increasing heights amid the eastward 

translation of a mid-level ridge over the Rockies will promote the 

return of highs near 60 to close out the week. 



Overnight lows in 40s and 50s are expected Monday night before 

widespread lows in the 30s arrive Tuesday night and last through the 

end of the week. Readings near/below freezing are possible in 

central Kansas beginning Wednesday night, though coverage could 

expand into south central Kansas depending on cloud coverage after 

sunset.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Low clouds and occasional visibility restriction expected to

impact aviation interests.



Currently, widespread IFR ceilings continue to overspread much

of the area with fluctuations down to IFR and up to MVFR 

occurring at times. Patchy areas of very light drizzle or mist

are also continuing to float around the area, and this may 

occasionally bring vis cats down to MVFR or IFR at some sites. 

These conditions should persist well into the morning hours, 

then a gradual improvement is forecast towards the end of the 

TAF period with all sites likely experiencing MVFR conditions

mainly driven by low cloud cover. Additionally, after 06Z 

tonight (Tuesday morning), chances for showers, and maybe a few 

storms, will be on the increase.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JWK

AVIATION...JC