FXUS63 KICT 201915

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

215 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A few strong storms are possible in southeast KS this afternoon.



- Seasonable and dry weather conditions are expected  Monday through 

  Wednesday.



- Increasing probabilities for showers/storms late Wednesday

  night into the upcoming weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



A cold front was bisecting southeast Kansas this morning with a 

considerable amount of post-frontal stratus impacting much of 

northern and portions of central Kansas. This is expected to keep 

temperatures in the 70s for most areas behind the front with some 

modest low level caa. Meanwhile, some breaks in the clouds will 

allow highs to climb to near 90 in the far southeast corner of KS 

early in the period with steady or falling temperatures anticipated. 

Some showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the 

buoyant and weakly capped airmass along and ahead of the front this 

afternoon while the focus gradually shifts south and east of the 

area as we move into the evening and overnight hours. A moist 

upslope flow regime over the Central High Plains is expected to 

result in a complex of showers and storms developing this evening. 

This activity is expected to drift south and east across western 

Kansas possibly clipping our central KS counties during the 

overnight hours before diminishing, although higher probabilities 

are expected to remain further west.



Mon-Wed...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated through the 

period with light northeast winds. The mid/upper ridge is progged to 

build over the stable shallow airmass with minimal impacts to 

sensible weather. Highs are expected to range from 75-80 through the 

period with lows mostly in the 50s, which is near climate normals 

for late Sep.



By Wed night, we may see some increase in shower activity as rich 

moisture wraps around the mid/upper ridge centered over the lower 

Mississippi Valley area. PWATs are progged to rise above 1.5" as 

more subtle features rotate around this feature. This moist plume is 

progged to remain across the Central and Southern Plains into the 

upcoming weekend with multiple opportunities for beneficial rainfall 

through the period. Temperatures are expected to moderate by this 

weekend with above average values returning to the area Sat-Sun. The 

threat for a few strong or severe storms may be hard to rule out 

over the upcoming weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



Low clouds, mainly MVFR will continue to impact much of central

Kansas this afternoon while gradually mixing out across south

central Kansas. Low ceilings may return as we move into the

overnight hours for much of the area while the timing remains

uncertain. IFR could become more widespread in the post-frontal

airmass tonight. Widely scattered storms may also develop over 

southeast Kansas this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Winds 

will then remain out of the northeast around 10 knots in the

wake of the cold front.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MWM

AVIATION...MWM