FXUS63 KICT 090355

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

1055 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A few hit-or-miss showers/storms possible into this evening.



- Quiet weather tonight through mid next week, with a gradual 

  warming trend.



- Potential for increasing thunderstorm chances later next week and 

  next weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



Weak forcing underneath an upper trough sinking south over the 

region amidst a relatively moist and weakly capped airmass should 

support a few hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms across the 

Kansas region through about sunset or shortly after. Weak buoyancy 

and deep layer shear will preclude strong or severe storms, with the 

strongest activity capable of brief heavy rain.



After this evening, quiet weather is expected to dominate the region 

through about mid next week, as longwave upper ridging encroaches on 

Mid-America. The pesky upper trough/low currently over the region is 

forecast to sink slowly south across the Lower Mississippi Valley 

this weekend, gradually lifting northeast early next week. Cannot 

rule out a few stray showers/storms over extreme southeast Kansas 

Monday as the region sees a glancing influence from this departing 

upper low, but strong or severe storms are not expected.



Seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures mostly in the 70s to low 

80s are expected Friday through Monday. Atmospheric thickness and 

southerly flow increase by Tuesday in response to digging western 

CONUS upper troughing, which will support above average daytime 

temperatures increasing into the 80s to near 90 degrees next Tuesday 

through late next week.



As we take a look ahead into late next week and next weekend, 

deterministic and ensemble consensus supports an increasing 

potential for thunderstorms across the region, as various shortwaves 

emanating from the base of the western CONUS longwave trough eject 

northeast onto the Central and Southern Plains. Uncertainty abounds 

this far out regarding magnitude and location of warm sector 

instability, and evolution and timing of the upper pattern, which 

will have big implications on thunderstorms and severe weather 

chances. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... 

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through

the next 24 hours. 



Diurnally driven showers and storms diminished a couple hours

after sunset, leaving widespread VFR conditions in place.

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will remain in place

through the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light and will

eventually turn to the northeast by early Fri afternoon. 



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...ADK

AVIATION...RBL