FXUS63 KICT 051715

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS

1215 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Increasing chances for showers/storms tonight and again on 

Thursday night along with potential for a few strong to marginally 

severe storms and heavy rainfall



- Higher confidence for another heat wave to build across the region 

for the weekend into mid-week



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



With the low clouds sticking around into the afternoon across

central Kansas, and a north wind preventing any low level warm

air advection, have gone ahead and adjusted highs cooler for

today. Think parts of central KS may struggle to warm above the

upper 70s thanks to the cloud cover. Across south central and

southeast KS where there should still be some insolation, have

kept highs in the middle and upper 90s. 





Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Lingering showers/storms will be possible again over central Kansas 

and parts of southeast Kansas this morning. Current satellite water 

vapor imagery shows an embedded upper level short wave over Wyoming 

traveling southeast via northwest flow regime aloft. This system 

will track east-southeast across Nebraska today and reach southeast 

Nebraska/northeast Kansas later tonight. A surface cold front will 

continue to migrate slowly southeast today and create a noticeable 

temperature difference from central Kansas compared to southern 

Kansas. A few storms could try and develop along the frontal 

boundary over southern Kansas late this afternoon/evening where 

convective temperatures should be attained. Otherwise a better 

signal for showers/storms will develop later tonight as low level 

jet increases moisture transport into a 700mb baroclinic zone. 

Expecting scattered storms to begin developing over parts of 

central/south central Kansas and more numerous storms to impact 

northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri mainly after 10pm. Elevated 

environment is supportive of a few strong to marginally severe 

storms given favorable 700-500mb layer directional shear profile and 

adequate instability. The activity looks to shift east of Kansas by 

Thursday morning with generally dry weather on tap during the day. 

Another round of elevated showers/storms is expected Thursday night 

with same signal of increasing low jet focusing moisture transport 

into 700mb baroclinic zone. The coverage of showers/storms looks to 

become more numerous along with potential for a few elevated strong 

to marginally severe storms possible again. There is also a threat 

for heavy rainfall to impact parts of southeast Kansas Thursday 

night. 



Deterministic models continue to show upper level high pressure 

center stretching eastward from the Rockies across Kansas for the 

weekend through early next week. High confidence that another round 

of heat and dry weather will affect the region this period. Model 

ensembles show increasing probabilities for 100 degrees or higher 

daytime high temperatures to begin affecting locations generally 

along and west of I-135/I-35 on Saturday. The model ensemble 

probabilities for 100 degrees or greater for daytime highs reaches 

70-90% Sunday-Tuesday for those same locations.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



IFR/LIFR ceilings should gradually improved this afternoon, 

lingering the longest for central Kansas locations. Showers with

minimal impacts will continue across southeast Kansas for the 

next couple hours. Then, MVFR ceilings are expected once again 

across central Kansas after 08Z. Some shower activity is 

expected overnight again, but overall impacts are expected to 

remain minimal with uncertainty on exact placement.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...CDJ/TOP

AVIATION...AMD