FXUS63 KICT 051119

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

519 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Decent chances for rain across southern Kansas today



- High confidence for a dry weather pattern to persist for Friday 

through all of next week across Kansas



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a compact and robust PV 

wave over eastern Colorado moving eastward. This system has sparked 

off numerous showers with some embedded thunderstorms over southwest 

Kansas due to modest 700mb warm advection and weak elevated 

instability. RAP and REFS short range models depict this axis of 

modest lift and weak elevated instability to spread into southern 

Kansas this morning. Therefore, expecting scattered to numerous 

showers to spread across southern Kansas during the morning and

afternoon hours. Can't rule out a few short-lived embedded 

storms near the KS/OK border this morning. This activity will 

gradually shift east of the area by this evening. Upper level 

ridging briefly builds across the central plains on Friday with 

surface high pressure settling over Kansas and temperatures 

slightly below normal. 



Models continue to show a weak upper trough racing southeast across 

the region for Saturday. Not expecting any precipitation since the 

weak system will have virtually no moisture to work with. Meanwhile, 

long range deterministic models and model ensembles are in solid 

agreement with a high amplitude upper ridge building across the 

Rockies. This creates high confidence for above normal temperatures 

and a dry weather pattern to prevail for Sunday through all of next 

week.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 516 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



Rain showers and mid level clouds will stream across southern

Kansas impacting KICT site this morning into the afternoon. Not

expecting cigs to drop below 3000ft for sites across central and

southern Kansas. Winds will remain out of the north through

throughout the period. 



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...CDJ

AVIATION...CDJ