FXUS63 KICT 030751 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers/storms possible over southern Kansas today - Better chances for storms to affect the area will be during the night time hours on Friday into Saturday morning, a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible - Storm chances could continue into next week but confidence is low on timing and evolution && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Scattered showers and storms developed across Oklahoma yesterday afternoon/evening with-in the deeper precipitable water axis. Early morning ALPW analysis shows the deeper moisture gradually spreading northward towards OK/KS border. This could give way to a few showers/storms reaching into southern Kansas later this afternoon/evening. Not anticipating any severe weather from these storms given very poor wind shear aloft. Heading into Friday, still expecting southerly winds to be on the increase during the afternoon and evening hours as the surface pressure gradient tightens. A upper level wave currently over southern California will eject east from the Rockies out into the central plains and encounter deeper moisture on Friday. Once this happens the most likely scenario is for convection to first develop along the dry line over western Nebraska/northwest Kansas Friday afternoon. This is where upper forcing(ascent from diffluence aloft) will aid in thunderstorm development. Also cannot rule out a few showers/storms trying to bubble up over central/south central Kansas with-in the deep moisture axis Friday afternoon. Wind shear aloft remains on the weaker side but there is enough for a few strong to marginally severe storms to materialize. The storms are expected to become more numerous Friday night as they move eastward with a strengthening low level jet/moisture transport feeding the storms. A forward propagating MCS could be spawned and would follow the nose of that veering low level jet. Corfidi vectors favor some southerly propagation effects for the storms especially if a larger cold pool develops Friday night. The main risk would be strong to possible isolated damaging winds and torrential downpours given higher than normal precipitable water. The showers and storms look to linger into Saturday morning as the upper level wave continues it's slow eastward trek across the central plains. We could see a lull for shower/storm activity Saturday night into Sunday with models showing the upper level wave east of Kansas and associated moisture axis. However the atmosphere could try and recover out west across the high plains with models showing a possible moisture upslope regime setting up on Sunday. If this happens storms would likely develop in the high plains then track southeast at night where it could reach central Kansas Sunday night. It will be a challenge trying to pinpoint timing and evolution for storms in this weaker upper flow regime for early next week. Daytime highs look to remain near climatological averages. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Southerly winds will pick up in the late morning to early afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts at all sites except CNU. Showers and storms could move into southern Kansas, but they are expected to stay south of TAF sites. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...GC