FXUS63 KICT 022343

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

643 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Chances for storms look to increase for Friday into Friday 

  night. 



- Scattered storm chances will then linger for the remainder of

  the weekend. 



- Max temps will remain very close seasonal averages for this

  time of year.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Upper impulse remains situated over Central/Southern CA with

weak upper ridging from the Southern Rockies into the Southern

Plains. Very moist southeast low level flow has kept an

extremely high PW airmass in place across central/west TX into

eastern NM. 



Not much is expected to change tonight, with a few

showers/storms continuing south of the OK/KS border, where

tropical-like atmosphere remains. Did go ahead and introduce

some small shower/storm chances to far southern KS for Thu as

the high PW airmass continues to slowly work north. Due to lack

of surface focus, not expecting anything too widespread. 



Upper impulse currently over Central/Southern CA will start to 

lift northeast, and by Thu night will be passing over the Four 

Corners Region. By 12z Fri, what is left of this upper wave will

be tracking into western Nebraska/northwest KS with some 

additional energy coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest.

Airmass that is over central/west TX will spread northeast for

Fri which will also bring scattered shower/storm chances to 

much of the area. Lack of surface focus will make it difficult 

to pin-point which areas will see higher chances. Lack of shear 

should limit severe potential for Fri with some brief heavy rain

the main threat. A more concentrated area of storms is expected

to develop late Fri afternoon and Fri evening over northwest 

KS/southwest Nebraska where front will be situated. This 

activity is then expected to track east and southeast Fri night,

possibly moving into the forecast area. Did notice that the 12z

model runs have backed off some on the wind speeds for Fri 

afternoon/early evening compared to the runs 24 hours ago.



There is decent model agreement that by Sat, upper energy will

be moving into the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley with a weak

surface front trying to sag down into central/northern KS. This

front is then expected to potentially linger through Sun, which

will keep sct shower and storm chances around through the

remainder of the weekend. After this weekend, confidence in 

storm chances drops off considerably, as the GFS is stronger 

with upper ridging over the Desert Southwest/Southern Rockies 

compared to the ECMWF. This would result in the ECMWF being 

considerably wetter compared to the GFS. For now will keep pops 

in check until models come into better agreement. 



Temps through most of this forecast package look to stay very

close to seasonal normals, with highs generally around 90

degrees.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



There are minimal aviation concerns for this forecast period.

Southerly winds increase in the late morning into the afternoon

for all sites with sustained speeds of 10-15kts and gusts

approaching 25kts mainly for the western sites. Showers and

thunderstorms could move into far southern Kansas in the

afternoon, but they are expected to stay south of the TAF sites

leaving mainly scattered to broken lower VFR clouds. 



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RBL

AVIATION...VJP