FXUS63 KICT 021703 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1203 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The dry weather pattern with slightly below normal temperatures continues for today and Thursday - July 4th, strong south winds expected with severe storms possible, coverage of storms look to increase at night - Holiday weekend could remain unsettle with more chances of storms followed by next round of storms on Tuesday-Wednesday next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The dry weather pattern will continue for today and Thursday with daytime highs slightly below normal for early July. Current satellite water vapor and ALPW analysis shows a upper level wave spinning over the eastern Pacific just off the coastline of southern California. This upper level system will track eastward across the Rockies and eject northeast into Nebraska on Friday/Friday night. As this system approaches lee troughing will deepen over the high plains and cause surface pressure gradient to tighten across much of Kansas. This will result in strong and gusty south winds for Friday afternoon/evening. Like previous update mentioned this could create issues for fireworks displays with strong south winds expected. Meanwhile the other concern will be thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon/night. The better upper forcing from this system will pivot across Nebraska where convection should be more numerous, and there is some southern peripheral influence over central Kansas where scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon. The environment by the models looks to have just enough wind shear(around 30kts 0-8km) for a few severe storms to materialize. The coverage of storms could increase Friday night as low level jet ramps up with Corfidi vectors guiding activity more southward overnight. Questions arise for Saturday as this day will predicated on the evolution of Friday night's convective activity. Models show a fairly unstable airmass residing over the region through the weekend which could keep things unsettled, especially if any upper level waves move across the area. Things could calm down on Monday with a continuation of daytime highs staying slightly below normal next week. Long range models show the upper level pattern changing to a northwest flow regime by middle of next week. The models are also predicting a healthy upper level wave traveling across the central plains with-in that northwest flow regime which could bring the next round of storms to the area Tuesday-Wednesday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through the end of the period. South winds observed so far this afternoon will decrease around/after sunset before picking back up toward the end of the period. Gusts up to 25 kts can be expected in central and south central KS late Thursday morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...JWK