FXUS63 KGRR 272327 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 727 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and Dry for most of the week - Chances for Rain late in the week and through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Cool and Dry for most of the week Models remain in good agreement through most of the week. High pressure will continue to dominate the pattern through the first half of the week with near normal highs in the mid to upper 50s through Wednesday, and near normal lows in the 30s. While the ridge will slowly be eroded as the week continues, precipitation is not expected through at least Wednesday. - Chances for Rain late in the week and through the weekend While previous models had some disparity, the strength, location and timing of the low has come into focus. A large upper level low will pass south of the Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday. Though some ensembles bring precipitation into southernmost Michigan, the dry air through the mid levels should keep the region dry. The low will continue to spin and make a hard right turn north Thursday. There are several factors to this track but one is the path of Hurricane Melissa. The hurricane will hinder the low's passage to the east and force it northward through the Mid Atlantic and into Quebec. As the low moves northward the back side of the low will bring copious amounts of moisture through Ohio and southern Ontario. That will bring strong northerly flow through the western Half of lower Michigan. That northerly flow should cause some lake enhanced showers friday afternoon. That is the best time when the flow from the low, the moisture from Lake Michigan and will intersect with a trough moving from the west. That combined flow could allow for showers Friday afternoon into the evening. The trough that is advecting eastward across Southern Canada this week should clip the upper midwest and bring chances for showers this upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 727 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 VFR is expected to continue through Tuesday with east winds becoming gusty again after 15 Z. Fog potential will be limited by 20 to 25 knot winds several hundred feet above the ground overnight. The HRRR model is producing 30 to 35 knot winds from 100 deg between 1,000 and 2,000 feet, from 03 to 09 Z tonight. This would mean a potential for 25 to 30 knots of LLWS between 1,500 feet and ground. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Hazardous winds and waves for small craft are occurring beyond 5 nautical miles from shore and will essentially continue to be for the rest of the week. The question is when to start a Small Craft Advisory in the nearshore, as winds from the east gradually intensify tonight and Tuesday. For this afternoon, wind gusts over 22 knots are infrequent at the marine weather observation platforms within the nearshore. Marginal advisory conditions may begin tonight given a jet of 25 knot easterly winds developing several hundred feet above the ground as the land cools, and the warm lake would favor those 25 knot gusts to mix to the water surface within 5 nautical miles of shore. Overall wind fields on Tuesday into Wednesday will be slightly stronger than today, which would continue the advisory conditions through then. After midweek, winds back more from the north then northwest, making waves in the nearshore a hazard in addition to the winds. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...CAS MARINE...CAS