FXUS63 KGRB 272337

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

637 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry weather is expected through Thursday.



- Gusty onshore winds and building waves to cause hazardous

  conditions for small craft on Lake Michigan tonight through 

  Wednesday night.



- High temperatures will generally be near or slightly above

  normal this week.



- High uncertainty revolves around the next chances for rain late

  this week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Dry weather is expected through at least Thursday due to the 

proximity of a strong Canadian high pressure system. The associated 

dry air will act as a force field and cause rain from an approaching 

low pressure system to skirt around the forecast area to the south 

and east on Tuesday. However, the forecast area will see the 

expansion of high clouds from this system. The next chance for 

precipitation is progged to arrive sometime late this week into the 

weekend as the upper-level pattern evolves into a more progressive 

northwest flow. But, much uncertainty revolves around the finer 

details due to the feature occurring later in the period and from 

the uncertainty of it's evolution with Hurricane Melissa off the 

East Coast.



Near normal temperatures are anticipated through much of the week 

before the pattern change later this week when temperatures may fall 

below normal.



&&



.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Southeast upslope flow and low-level moisture will continue to

bring potential for areas of low stratus late tonight into Tuesday

morning, but trends are somewhat uncertain. Will bring SCT MVFR

clouds to most of the TAF sites between 06z-08z/Tue, and MVFR cigs

to the western TAF sites before daybreak. Expect the clouds to

slowly rise during daytime heating, but MVFR conditions may 

linger at RHI/AUW/CWA into early afternoon. Surface and boundary 

layer winds are expected to be strong enough to prevent fog from

developing at most locations tonight, so will leave it out of the

TAFs for now.



Light east winds will prevail overnight, then increase with

gusts to 15 to 20 kts during the daytime om Tuesday.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Persistent east/southeast winds will generate high waves and gusty 

winds on Lake Michigan beginning this evening through Tuesday night. 

Despite winds turning more northeasterly on Wednesday, waves will 

remain elevated on Lake Michigan, mainly south of Sturgeon Bay. 

Therefore, the current Small Craft Advisory on Lake Michigan has 

been expanded through Wednesday night for the nearshore waters south 

of Sturgeon Bay. Given winds have decreased slightly from the 

previous forecast, continued to hold off on issuing an advisory for 

the Bay.



&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....Kruk

AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

MARINE.........Kruk