FXUS63 KGRB 070624

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

124 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures will be at or below normal into next week. Another

  Frost Advisory may be needed tonight. 



- Spotty showers in the north today (15-30% probability). Any

  accumulations would be less than one-tenth of an inch.



- Medium precip potential on Saturday and Tuesday. Impacts look

  minor.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



Temps/Frost: Cloud cover was keeping temperatures slightly warmer

than forecast early tonight, with readings at 06Z in the upper 

30s to lower 40s. Satellite imagery shows clouds across central 

and east- central WI dissipating, so expect temperatures will 

still drop into the lower to middle 30s over the next couple 

hours. Current Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8AM. For 

tonight/Friday morning, low temperatures have trended a couple

degrees cooler, with lows right around freezing in central WI, 

and in the middle 30s from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore. 

Another Frost Advisory may be needed tonight, with NBM 

probabilities showing a 20-70% chance of getting to 36 degrees or

colder west of Fox Valley.

 

Temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals on Friday, with

highs in the lower 60s for most. From there, daily highs will

continue to bounce between near and below normal through the

weekend and into next week. 



Precipitation: A shortwave brushes across northern WI this 

afternoon, which is farther north than previous indications. PoPs 

have been pulled back across the southern forecast area, but 

remain in the 15-30% range across northern WI during the afternoon

and early evening. Still not much moisture to work with, so any 

precipitation would be scattered or spotty showers, with only a 

few hundredths of QPF. 



Dry weather is expected Friday, followed by a cold front moving

from northwest to southeast across WI on Saturday. This front has

sped up from previous runs, with the highest rain probabilities

(~20-45%) in the morning, and then decreasing through the 

afternoon. Once again, moisture is lacking, making any

accumulations light. 



A more organized system is on track to move through the Upper 

Midwest early next week, impacting Wisconsin on Tuesday. This is

the greatest opportunity to see rain over the next week. 



In between the light rain chances, brief periods of elevated fire

weather conditions will occur due to deep mixing, low RHs,

moderate winds, and increasing fuels.



&&



.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 1007 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Recent model

trends are drier this run, with mainly dry conditions or very

small (10-20%) chances for showers across central and east-central

Wisconsin on Thursday. Given these trends will take out the PROB30

for the southern TAF sites. Further north and later in the day a

potent shortwave tracks through northern Wisconsin with a bit

better moisture. Therefore, will keep the PROB30 at KRHI given the

better chances (30%) for light rain showers across this area

during the afternoon. Winds will generally be light through early

Thursday morning, then increase later Thursday morning into the

afternoon at 10-15 knots, decreasing again Thursday evening.



&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ022-030-031-

035>040-045-048>050.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....KLJ

AVIATION.......Kurimski