FXUS63 KGRB 070344

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

1044 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures will be at or below normal for the next week,

  resulting in a few more nights of Frost headlines.



- Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM for portions of central and

  northeast WI, mainly along and south of a line from Wausau to

  Green Bay to northern Door County. 



- Increased rain chances (25-40%) on Thursday and (20-40%) on

  Saturday. Only a 10-30% chance of a tenth of an inch on Thursday

  over far northeast WI.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Temperatures at or below normal will continue into the weekend,

which likely result in a few more nights of frost headlines. The

latest Frost Advisory will be tonight from 1 AM to 8 AM for the

same counties where the growing season has started. Still waiting

for green up across the north which has been stunted by the 

recent cool weather.



The main changes to the forecast is to increase rain chances on 

Thursday to 25-40% and on Saturday from 20-40% as as weak

disturbances move along the mean flow. For the Thursday system,

the highest rain chances will be across central into east central

Wisconsin during the morning into the early afternoon. The focus

for highest rain chances later Thursday afternoon into the evening

will be across the north. The latest HREF probabilities indicated

only a 10-30% chance of a tenth of an inch of rain on Thursday.  

For the Saturday system, the highest probabilities of

precipitation and rainfall amounts over the north.



Frost headlines may be needed Friday morning in some areas where

the growing season has started. Temperatures should returns closer

to normal into the first half of the weekend before another cool

down returns on Sunday. Temperatures should return to or possible

a few degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Along with

the warmer temperatures, the chances of rain and a few storms

are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&



.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 1007 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Recent model

trends are drier this run, with mainly dry conditions or very

small (10-20%) chances for showers across central and east-central

Wisconsin on Thursday. Given these trends will take out the PROB30

for the southern TAF sites. Further north and later in the day a

potent shortwave tracks through northern Wisconsin with a bit

better moisture. Therefore, will keep the PROB30 at KRHI given the

better chances (30%) for light rain showers across this area

during the afternoon. Winds will generally be light through early

Thursday morning, then increase later Thursday morning into the

afternoon at 10-15 knots, decreasing again Thursday evening.



&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ022-030-031-

035>040-045-048>050.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....Eckberg

AVIATION.......Kurimski