FXUS63 KGRB 051105 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 505 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Light scattered showers return early Thursday morning. There is a 40-50% chance of adding an additional quarter of an inch of rain. - Gusty northwest winds expected Thursday and continue Thursday night into Friday. There is a 20-30% chance of wind gusts to 40 mph across northern Door County Thursday afternoon and evening. - A light dusting of snow is possible Thursday night in north- central Wisconsin, along the Upper Peninsula border. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 Active Weather and Winds Thursday... Lingering moisture and upper support continue to produce light drizzle and rain across portions of central and north-central Wisconsin, but areas further east will likely remain dry for much of the early overnight hours. Additional scattered shower coverage will then return to the region in the overnight hours as the deep upper trough and attendant cold front cross the region again Thursday morning. Moisture will be relatively limited with these showers however, so additional rainfall totals will be limited to around 40-50% chance of exceeding a quarter of an inch. After the initial push of showers along the cold front, dry conditions are likely to return everywhere but far northern Wisconsin along the Upper Peninsula and possibly along the lakeshore. As temperatures drop behind the front overnight, some flurries could mix in at times and produce a dusting of snow for the northern most portions of north-central Wisconsin. The cold air advection will also bring some gusty winds to the region today, with widespread gusts to around 20 to 30 mph. Some gusts may reach up to 35 mph, but probability of seeing stronger gusts has come down, with around only a 20% chance of getting to around 40 mph. These stronger winds will likely stick around through Thursday night into Friday, especially for areas near the Bay of Green Bay and Lake Michigan. After the initial rounds of precipitation at the beginning of the forecast period, dry conditions are largely anticipated for the rest of the period. Temperatures... The cold front will produce a period of near or just below normal temperatures for the overnight period Thursday night and also on Friday. A slow warmup then arrives over the weekend into next week, which will bring temperatures back to above normal. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 505 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs remains in place across the region early this morning. VSBYs ranged from VFR to MVFR/IFR in light rain and drizzle. This light rain and drizzle will continue this morning as a cold front sweeps through the region. Conditions should then improve this afternoon into this evening as high pressure builds in across the upper Mississippi Valley in the wake of the cold front. CIGs should improve to MVFR across northern Wisconsin with VFR conditions across central and east- central Wisconsin this evening. Southwesterly winds will turn west then northerly throughout the day as the cold front moves through the area. Expect occasional gusts to continue to mix to the surface up to 15 to 25 kts today. && .MARINE... Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 A prolonged period of gusty southerly winds and high waves will come to an end later tonight on the lake. The Small Craft Advisory on the lake expires at 6 am Thursday. The break in the hazardous conditions will be brief as gusty northwest winds are expected to develop during the afternoon and continue into Friday. Gale force gusts are possible Thursday afternoon and evening. A Gale Warning has been posted from noon to 9 pm on Thursday for the bay and lake. After the Gale Warning expires, A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 9 pm Thursday to 6 pm Friday due to the gusty winds and high waves. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann AVIATION.......Kurimski MARINE.........Uhlmann