FXUS63 KGRB 030805 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 205 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Next chance for widespread light snow/wintry precip arrives Thursday morning, lasting through Friday morning. Greatest chances for 1 inch of snow are across northern Vilas and along the Door Peninsula. - Temperatures to be above normal throughout the week, with central Wisconsin seeing a chance at above freezing highs on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 High pressure influence to our north continues to be prevalent early this morning, with only a lake effect stratus deck parked over the northern half of the forecast area. Combination of high pressure under weak ridging then continues to result in dry conditions and near normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Precip chances... Synoptic pattern begins to re-amplify toward the end of the week as low pressure deepens over the Hudson Bay, bringing our next chances for light snow or a wintry mix. Trends seem to be holding steady as most ensembles take the track of the clipper further north, though the brief dry spell is still likely to come to an end for most. First round of isentropically-forced precip looks to develop along the leading edge of a swath of WAA Thursday morning, bringing a short-lived round of light snow area-wide. Potential exists for light rain to mix in with snow at times across central Wisconsin where surface temperatures will read at/near freezing, though suspect snow will be the dominant p-type due to the shallow nature of the warmer near-surface layer. Cold FROPA then occurs Friday morning, bringing with it a second round of snow mainly to the lake effect belts. LREF grand ensemble continues to show the greatest chance for 1 inch of snow (30 to 50%) over northern Vilas and along the Door Peninsula as winds veer to northwesterly. Could see a scenario in which some freezing drizzle mixes in Friday morning due to a shallow supercooled moist layer, though this will depend on efficiency of ice production. For the time being, have limited NBM ZR wx type to ZL. Winds also ramp up on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens up along the front, with surface gusts to 25 mph possible Friday afternoon within deeper mixing. Temperatures... Near normal temperatures mainly in the 20s prevail throughout the week, with some locations across central Wisconsin even seeing a chance at above freezing highs on Thursday. A quick shot of colder air arrives behind the passage of the clipper on Saturday, though should moderate back to above normal heading into the next work week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 951 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 MVFR and VFR clouds will continue to slowly expand south this evening as north/northwest flow prevails over Lake Superior. The clouds are at RHI/GRB/MTW and will likely reach AUW/CWA/ATW. Some downsloping could allow the clouds to scatter out the further you move away from Lake Superior, but as was the case today, it could take some time for that to occur. Leaned a little more pessimistic with the clouds for the 06z TAFs. Some mid and high clouds will also spread across the region tonight and again Tuesday afternoon/evening. Where the low clouds are present, some flurries are expected at times tonight into Tuesday morning, especially closer to the MI border, but impacts will be limited to a few 5-7SM visibilities. Light west/northwest/north winds are expected through the TAF period. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Bersch