FXUS63 KGLD 022330 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 530 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm potential returns Friday continuing possibly into next week. - Highs in the 90s throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Tonight... Breezy S flow tapers into the overnight hours under a clear sky. With very low dewpoints observed at max heating of the day, with locations in east-central CO getting as low as the upper 30s, expect lows around 60 going into Thursday morning for much of the forecast region. Can't rule out isolated areas bottoming out as low as the mid 50s should winds become calm. Thursday into Thursday night... Blustery S winds. As the W CONUS H5 trof weakens as it lifts NE in advance of continued wave train of N Pacific energy, the broad ridge pattern shunted E, the subsequent pressure falls and increasing SW to NE gradient promotes strong S winds while advecting sub-tropical moisture N at the surface through the mid-levels. Subtle cooling of atmospheric column with moist advection and anticipated deep-layer mixing up around 5 kft, expecting an increase in cloud cover through the day that should keep highs around the upper 80s to low 90s as sustained winds are expected around 20 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 to 35 mph with the mix down of faster winds aloft. Throughout it all, minimum relative humidity values should remain at or above 30 percent. Overnight, the gradient will remain strong so anticipate winds will remain breezy. Perhaps some low lying areas could decouple becoming light but have doubts. Nevertheless, the continued S winds advecting both moisture and warmer air aloft, as ground temperatures cool have expectations of a capping inversion beneath which moisture should be allowed to pool thus promoting the development of low stratus into the morning hours Friday. This may be the case over a majority of the forecast area minus perhaps east-central CO. Lows in the mid 60s maintained by the breezy S winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Beginning Friday, afternoon into evening thunderstorm chances are forecast to persist into the following week. Persistent N Pacific H3 jet wave breaking along the CA coast at times promoting development of the 4-corners monsoonal high. Expecting the maintenance of both heat and humidity upsloping N across the plains with precipitable waters at least +1 inch. With weak wave energy through the expected broad near-zonal pattern will need to monitor for the promotion of surface frontal boundaries along with mid to upper level winds to determine if any convection is possible. Friday looks to be the best chance with a weak cold front sweeping through the region. Timing and outcomes remaining uncertain at this moment. Roughly 1-2k J/kg CAPE within W/NW 0-6 km shear getting up to 25-30 kts, enough to promote updraft maintenance. But it is some question of the environment remaining capped into late and storms developing further E, more so into evening as models indicate that with the low-level jet increasing and impinging on the sweeping cold front that we see MCS development across the central plains. An expectation that CAMs will paint a better picture over the next 24 hours and provide us higher confidence. Over the weekend into next week is looking more of a wash, rinse, repeat cycle as the 4-corners monsoonal high develops along the N- periphery of which continued energy seemingly promotes thunderstorm development along the front range of CO that translates E into NW KS with the mean W/NW wind pattern. Each day will require monitoring of forcing mechanisms that can promote lift in an expected maintainedenvironment of heat and humidity across our region. Instability and shear are largely uncertain so convective modes and exact outcomes are truly unknown. Things could get complicated even from any storm cold pool outflows. An eye on heavy rain potential as well. Highs around 90, lows around 60. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 527 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. Winds will be gusting 20-25 mph throughout the forecast period, but especially Thursday mid-day through the evening hours at both area airports. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees are forecast throughout the forecast period. MSW && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sipprell LONG TERM...Sipprell AVIATION...Williams