FXUS63 KGLD 021053 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 453 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm potential returns Friday continuing possibly into next week. - Highs in the 90s throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Today through tomorrow, we will be sitting under a high pressure system that will keep the sky pretty clear and keep our chances at precipitation pretty low. Through the mid morning this morning, as a 500 mb high moves off the Rockies from our west to be absorbed by the larger ridge to our east, some mild vorticity can be expected in the northern portions of the CWA. This could lead to a few sprinkles or virga showers, but POPs are being kept to 10 or less. Today and tomorrow, thanks to the high pressure to our east, we can expect southerly winds at around 15 kts, with some gusts getting around to the 20-25 kts mark, similar to yesterday. Overnight, winds look to weaken about 5-10 kts, but tomorrow we can expect sustained winds around 15, maybe 20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. However, the NBM is showing gusts up around 40 kts by the afternoon, which seems too high. Before 1-2Z on the 4th, the only levels in the vertical column seeing winds above 25 kts is around 250 mb, and I have my doubts we're going to mix that deeply. It seems like the NBM wants the 850 mb LLJ to kick up around 18Z and that's where it's getting these 30-35% higher winds. Temperatures today look to warm into the low to mid 90s, although some locations may hit 97-99. Tomorrow looks to be a degree or two cooler, but not much difference than today. Overnight tonight we can expect temperatures to cool into the 60s across the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Potentially active pattern late week into the following week. H3-5 trof across western N America weakens N as the summer-time pattern evolves with a monsoonal high across the 4-corners region of the CONUS. It's during the evolution we see a return of 1.0 to 1.5 inch precipitable waters across the central plains and midwest out ahead of a series of disturbances that train through the broader SW to an evolving zonal pattern. It's within this pattern that wave impulses will invigorate a more organized convective weather event for Friday seemingly east of our forecast area. Thereafter for the rest of the weekend into early next week heat and instability will prevail upon which any lift and forcing mechanisms, if present, will invigorate additional storm activity. So, in brevity, organized storms for Friday in our vicinity. A close eye on a likely evolving dryline out ahead of which instability will prevail. Better shear parent with an anticipated mid-level trof axis makes the case for organized storm activity. Just a bit too early to say with any certainty on convective mode and potential threats. For the weekend into next week, continued instability beneath the evolving zonal pattern that we'll have to watch for any dips with energy from the N in invigorating shower and thunderstorm activity across our area. This as a frontal boundary will likely remain over the N CONUS along which low level winds overnight will focus meso- scale convective storm systems sweeping southeastward away from our region so will have to keep an eye out for any potential influences. As the previous forecaster mentioned, a messy pattern, prevailing S winds, upsloping both heat and instability. Wash, rinse, repeat of daily shower and thunderstorm activity in a weak-sheared environment yielding a low risk for any severe weather. Highs around the low 90s with lows down in the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 448 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions and southerly winds will prevail through the period, overall a pretty good time to fly. This morning, southwesterly winds look to gust up around 15-25 kts, and in the midday they will gradually become southeasterly. In the late evening, winds should slow to under 15kts, closer to the 10 kts mark by 12Z Thursday. KMCK has a 5% chance of seeing some virga showers this morning, ending by 20Z, but no impacts are expected even if the showers form. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Sipprell AVIATION...CA