FXUS63 KGID 202130

AFDGID



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

430 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Seasonably cool temps (60-70s), limited precip chances 

  (mainly 10-30%), and lots of clouds expected to start the work

  week.



- Increasing storm chances mid-week, with unsettled weather 

  likely continuing into next weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



Mostly cloudy skies, a bit of drizzle and cool temperatures

lingered across the local area today. An upper level low across

eastern Wyoming on Satellite is helping to trigger a few

thunderstorms across the high plains - which if model data is

correct, should mostly dissipate at they approach the area late

this evening as they move into a more stable environment. 



Overnight, a few storms could cross areas mainly north of I-80,

closer to the center of the low, as it tracks east across the 

central plains. If realized, the environment remains 

unfavorable for strong or severe storms due to a lack of 

instability, and any storms should remain isolated and on the 

weaker side. Of secondary concern, there are some hints of fog 

development across the area to start the day Monday with the 

latest HRRR indicating some widely scattered dense fog. Given 

the light northeasterly winds and minimal T/Td spread, cannot 

rule out at least some patchy fog formation, and consequently 

added fog to the forecast to start the day Monday.



While some small pops remain in the forecast for Monday, most of

the local area should remain dry behind the departing upper

level low, with these mostly dry conditions likely prevailing

through at least midday Wednesday, as weak ridging sets up

across the local area ahead of the next more notable

disturbance. While some small splotchy pops remain in the

forecast at times late Monday through Wednesday afternoon, model

signals for precip mid-week with this next disturbance have 

really ramped up over the past 24 hours, with most of ensemble 

members indicating a potentially very wet Wed/Thursday time 

period. While surface temperatures remain on the cooler side of

climo and instability is on the lower side, could see some

embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, with

more showery and less widespread precip expected to end the week

and continue into next weekend. 



Overall, a seasonably cool and occasionally unsettled period is

forecast to continue across the local area for much of the next

7-10 days, with lots of cloud cover and the potential for some

morning fog at times.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



For KGRI/KEAR Airports:



MVFR or lower stratus will prevail at both terminals through the

period with generally light northwestelry winds less than 10

KTS. Expect some improvement in CIGS to near 1.5K feet over the

next few hours, with all indications that they will lower again

overnight to around 500 FT along with some light BR. While there

could be a few light showers mixed in, the odds for this are so

low that no mention was made in 18Z TAFS. In addition, contemplated

lower VSBYs overnight as there are some hints in HRRR for dense

fog as well as in LAMP and NAM guidance towards daybreak 

Monday, but want to see additional forecast data come in along

these lines before biting. Overall, light northeasterly flow and

near zero dewpoint depressions are favorable for at least more

widespread fog development.



&&



.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Rossi

AVIATION...Rossi