FXUS63 KGID 091738 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1238 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming up, 80s today through next Thursday, maybe even some 90s on Wednesday. - High confidence in dry conditions through at least Wednesday. Can't rule out a slight (20%) chance for showers Wednesday night/Thursday, but most areas will see at least another dry 7 days. - This warmth and continued dryness along with increasing winds will lead to fire weather concerns for parts of the area from Sunday through Thursday. See the Fire Weather section below for more specifics. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Precipitation Chances (Not Good)... An upper level ridge over the desert southwest will build into the central plains this weekend leading to warmer highs (80s) with essentially little to no chance for rainfall. The next significant upper level trough will deepen across the western United States early next week, but not move into the plains until around Wednesday/Thursday. This upper low is currently projected to be forced on a more northerly track into the Dakotas taking most of the precipitation north of our area this time, with currently just a meager 20 percent chance for rainfall across our far north Wednesday night, which may be overly generous. The next perhaps decent upper low that could be better positioned for precipitation around here may hold off until around May 17-19 and that is so far out that confidence is currently low at best. Warmer temperatures (Highly Likely)... Forecast ensembles are indicating high confidence with minimal spread of highs in the 80s through at least Thursday or Friday next week. The hottest day currently appears to be next Wednesday and that's currently the best chance at seeing many locations in the 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR through the period, along with light winds. Some CU based around 7-9k ft that has developed this afternoon should dissipate by sunset. Only limited mid to high clouds expected tonight into Sat. Confidence: High. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Despite the increasingly green fuels, much of Nebraska remains well below normal on precipitation so far this year. Because of this, many areas still have enough dormant/dead grasses to carry fire...given favorable fire weather conditions. Therefore, given favorable dry fuels, we plan to continue to issue Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings for our Nebraska counties as long as conditions warrant. Our Kansas counties have seen sufficient green up and more precipitation than our Nebraska counties and are no longer being considered for fire weather headlines at this time. The wind will remain light and generally less than 10 mph through Saturday, but then is expected to increase out of the south Sunday afternoon at 20-25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. The increasing winds along with warmer temperatures and low RH values (17-23%) will likely result in the eventual need for fire weather/red flag headlines on Sunday assuming this forecast holds unchanged. RH values will likely continue to bottom out most afternoons next week in the 15% to 25% range with wind gusts of 25-35 mph, leading to the possibility of multiple days with fire weather headlines. The wind will be southerly most days, but will eventually become more southwesterly or westerly by Wednesday and Thursday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Thies FIRE WEATHER...Wesely