FXUS63 KGID 031118

AFDGID



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

618 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Quieter, summer-like weather is expected today. Dry conditions

  will remain through tonight.



- Showers and storms are expected for the holiday weekend, 

  which may impact some outdoor plans. 



- Periodic chances for showers and storms continue into the

  start of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Expect one more day of quieter weather before a pattern change sets 

in. An upper ridge will shift east over central Nebraska today. 

Southerly winds increase later this morning into the afternoon, with 

warm air advecting into the region. Expect a very summer-like, hot 

and dry day with highs topping out in the low to mid-90s. For those 

heading out to enjoy holiday festivities, temperatures around 10pm 

will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. 



Friday, the ridge continues to shift east, over eastern Nebraska and 

western Iowa in the morning. The area will come under southwest flow 

with a shortwave from the Four Corners region lifting to the 

northeast through the early morning hours. Isolated showers and 

storms may be possible in the early morning hours for areas in north 

central Kansas and the western portions of our area. Thunderstorm 

chances (40-70%) increase heading into the afternoon and evening, 

which may put a damper on some outdoor holiday plans/fireworks 

shows. Any storms that are able to develop will have the potential 

of becoming strong to marginally severe, with gusty winds, small 

hail and heavy rain all possible. The Storm Prediction Center has 

put much of our CWA into a Marginal Risk area. The Marginal Risk 

includes the Tri-Cities and areas along and west of a line from 

Stromsburg to Red Cloud to Alton. 



Heading into the weekend, southwest flow transitions to zonal flow, 

with a series of shortwaves moving into the region. Periodic showers 

and thunderstorms will impact the region during this time, although 

timing, coverage, and locations impacted remain uncertain at this 

time. Expected highs will be primarily in the 80s. A few low 90s may 

be possible Saturday afternoon in north central Kansas and the 

western portions of our south central Nebraska counties.



Monday and Tuesday, a closed upper low approaches northern 

California, with an upper ridge developing over the Rockies. There 

are periodic chances for showers and storms both days; however, 

discrepancies remain between models synoptic features moving 

into the area in addition to storm timing, coverage, and 

location. It does look like slightly higher chances for storms 

will be possible during the evening and overnight hours.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



For KGRI/KEAR Airports:



VFR conditions persist through the TAF period at both terminals.

Expect clear skies and southerly winds through the day. Winds

will increase to around 10-15kts toward late morning/early 

afternoon. Outside of the TAF period Friday morning/afternoon,

showers and storms return to the forecast.



&&



.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Wekesser

AVIATION...Wekesser