FXUS63 KGID 020518 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening thunderstorms move into the area late this evening into tonight. There is a low (5%) chance for a few wind gusts as high as 60 MPH...particularly in western areas. - Dry and warm Wednesday and Thursday with only a low chance (20%) for showers or storms Thursday night. - Better chances for thunderstorms arrive for Independence Day (Friday). Off and on chances for thunderstorms continue through the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Scattered thunderstorms developing over CO/WY will move eastward and continue to organize as we head into the evening hours. Based on recent CAMs, this activity would approach western portions of the area around 10-11pm, but should be on a weakening trend as they move into a more stable environment. That said, these storms could produce some localized severe winds as they dissipate. There are varying solutions on how far eastward this threat extends, but the primary threat appears to be near and northwest of a line from Lexington to Ord, NE. Additional elevated showers/storms may develop later overnight into Wednesday morning (mainly north of I-80), but this is not expected to be severe. Wednesday and Thursday will be warm and mostly quiet as upper level ridging moves overhead. High temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s across most of the area. Low chances for thunderstorms move in from the west late Thursday night with an approaching shortwave, but better chances will hold off until later in the day on Friday. Unfortunately, the best chance for thunderstorms appears to be late during the afternoon and evening on July 4th. Scattered convection could actually begin by early afternoon as the shortwave moves into the area, lasting into the evening hours before eventually shifting to our east. Deep-layer shear is on the lower end (generally 15-25kts), so a widespread, organized severe weather event is not expected, but a few localized strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. Additionally, slow storm motions and very high precipitable water values (1.50-2.00") could lead to localized excessive rainfall issues. The rest of the holiday weekend is a little quieter, but there are still off and on thunderstorm chances as a series of weak disturbances move through the area. After a warm day on Saturday, temperatures dip slightly into the 80s for most areas on Sunday/Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some mid-level clouds will continue to move across the region through tomorrow afternoon, with skies clearing out in the late afternoon/early evening. Some thunderstorms have developed to the north of the terminals, closer to KODX and KLBF. These are not expected to impact the terminals; however, a few showers cannot be entirely ruled out overnight. Have omitted from prevailing conditions for now due to potential limited coverage. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Wekesser