FXUS63 KGID 020014

AFDGID



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

614 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



...Aviation Update...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Patchy-to-areas of fog possible overnight into Monday morning,

  and at least localized dense fog (visibility 1/4 mile or less)

  can't be ruled out. Confidence in fog likelihood/coverage of

  fog is not high, but higher-res visibility guidance suggests

  most fog would tend to favor the northeast 1/2 of our 

  forecast area (mainly northeast of a Kearney-Mankato KS line).

 

- A light wintry mix is possible Tuesday evening and Tuesday

  night, although significant impacts are not expected. 



- Warm and dry for the end of the week and into the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 248 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



Despite yesterday's snowfall, temperatures have overachieved 

today, with nearly the entire area reaching the 50s. Low level 

moisture from the snowmelt today, combined with light winds will

potentially allow for fog late tonight into Monday morning. 12Z

CAMs were quite aggressive with the fog potential, although 

more recent HRRR runs have backed of on the coverage...partially

due to increasing high clouds. 



The increased cloudcover on Monday will keep temperatures 

around 10 degrees cooler than today...but still slightly above 

normal for early February. 



The best chance for precipitation over the next week arrives 

with a shortwave on Tuesday. Precipitation type will be mixed. 

Primary types will be rain and snow, possibly mixed with 

freezing drizzle in localized areas with subfreezing 

temperatures. Localized travel impacts cannot be ruled out, but 

the overall threat remains low. A very light wintry mix is 

possible Tuesday morning, but the primary timeframe will be 

Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. 



Seasonal temperatures continue on Wednesday behind this system,

but another significant warmup is still on-track for the end of

the week and into the weekend. Although we will likely come up 

short of record highs, widespread temperatures in the 50s are 

expected each day Thursday through next Sunday. There is also 

pretty high confidence in dry conditions through this period as 

well. 



Medium range ensemble are hinting at a more active period for 

the following week (February 10-14), as we move to more zonal or

southwesterly flow aloft. That said, details remain very 

uncertain and temperatures are favored to remain fairly mild.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 610 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

- General overview (including winds):

High confidence that the entire period is precipitation-free.

Also high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through at least

these first 6-8 hours this evening, and also the final 6-8 hours

late Monday morning through afternoon. However, the "middle" 8 

hours (08-16Z) admittedly carries a considerable amount of 

uncertainty regarding the possibility of fog development and 

associated sub-VFR possibilities (more details below). Winds 

will not be a significant issue, with sustained speeds no more 

than 5-10KT at least the vast majority of the period. However, 

there will gradual directional shifts...from downright variable 

much of tonight, to southerly Monday morning, to north- 

northwesterly Monday afternoon behind a weak front. 



- Ceiling/visibility uncertainty:

As is often the case even within only 8-10 hours from potential

onset, confidence in both the likelihood and duration of

potential fog is running below-average. In reality, at least

light fog and/or a very low ceiling could develop at almost any

point mainly 08-16Z, with realistic possibilities ranging

anywhere from no worse than MVFR visibility...to perhaps at

least brief LIFR/VLIFR in dense fog (perhaps favoring KGRI more

than KEAR). Given thesewide range of possibilities, admittedly

struggled with how best to handle in TAFs. Ultimately opted

toward TEMPO groups 10-14Z that perhaps lean toward the more

pessimistic side of a "middle ground" approach, but at least

acknowledge the possibility of IFR conditions in low visibility

and/or ceiling. 



&&



.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Mangels

AVIATION...Pfannkuch