FXUS63 KFSD 051734

AFDFSD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD

1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperature will continue to trend near to above normal into 

  the weekend with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s.



- Besides some smaller periodic rain chances (20% or less),

  mostly dry conditions are expected through Sunday.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 436 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Taking a look across the area, conditions continue to clear this 

morning as a surface high moves in overhead. With lighter surface 

winds in place, we've started to see patchy areas of fog develop 

mainly along our waterways and in low lying areas. While we're not 

expecting any widespread coverage, can't rule a few locally dense 

patches mainly across northwestern IA with the potential for 

visibility as low as a mile or less through mid-morning. Otherwise, 

we're still on track for dry and quiet conditions today as highs 

peak in the upper 70s to low 80s for the day. Lastly, wildfire smoke 

will continue to sit over most areas aloft with limited surface 

impacts.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026



A weak trough with mid level moisture and weak elevated instability 

will exit by about early evening, which will end the showers and 

thunderstorms across the area. Behind this wave skies will clear a 

bit and with light wind some fairly chilly morning lows are 

expected. Expect lows in most locations from the upper 40s to mid 

50s. With lighter winds and clear skies some patchy low land fog 

will be possible.



Low pressure moves along the Canadian border on Thursday, with a 

trailing trough expected to move through the area Thursday night. 

For now the atmosphere looks a little too dry for much in the way of 

showers or thunderstorms, so will keep chances at 20 percent or less.



Friday is a tough call as instability increases across the area, 

but capping looks to limit the convective potential. Also of note is 

some disagreement on timing of the weak wave moving through Thursday 

night. If the faster runs are more accurate, then capping is likely 

to be even more difficult to overcome. A slower trough could allow 

for a little additional heating which would support a few 

thunderstorms.



Models continue to point towards faster westerly flow aloft Saturday 

and Sunday which may bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms 

to the area this weekend. Currently looking like Sunday night will 

be the better chance for showers and storms.



Upper level flow will turn light northerly early next week which 

will bring temperatures back to below normal with limited chances 

for precipitation.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



VFR conditions are expected to prevail for this period. Few to 

scattered clouds in conjunction with wildfire smoke aloft will 

partially obscure the sky. Winds for the most part during the day 

today will be southerly and light to light and variable. This 

evening and through the overnight stronger winds will spread east. 

By sunrise wide spread gusts of 15-20 kts are expected. Through the 

day Thursday winds continue to increase with widespread gusts 

between 20-27 kts. Areas of northwest Iowa will see lower gusts 

generally 20 kts or less. 



&&



.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...05

DISCUSSION...08

AVIATION...AJP