FXUS63 KFSD 020900

AFDFSD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD

300 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Pockets of light snow will progress through the area this 

  evening and overnight with mainly light accumulations expected

  (a dusting or less). A transition to freezing drizzle will be

  possible overnight.



- Near to above normal temperatures will persist over the next

  several days with the warmest conditions expected by Thursday.



- With no major system ahead over the next week, expect mostly

  quiet conditions to persist.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



TODAY & TONIGHT: A slightly cooler day ahead! Taking a look across 

the area, a dreary start continues as lower-level clouds (stratus) 

continues to blanket the area this morning. Similar to yesterday, we 

should keep overcast skies around for most of the day. However, our 

surface winds will be a lot lighter than yesterday. Otherwise, the 

first half of the day will remain quiet as temperatures peak in the 

upper teens to mid 30s for the day with the coolest conditions north 

of a Huron to Sioux Falls to Storm Lake, IA line. By the second half 

of the day, we'll see another clipper wave swing across the Northern 

Plains by late afternoon promoting increased snow chances (20%-30%) 

from the early evening into the overnight hours. With QPF expected 

remaining below 0.10" of an inch, most areas can expect a dusting or 

less with the potential for light snow to transition to pockets of 

freezing drizzle and/or flurries overnight. Otherwise, most of this 

activity should gradually dissipate into the start of Tuesday as 

temperatures decrease into the low double digits to low 20s for the 

night. 



TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Looking into Tuesday, a surface high will slide 

through the area keeping any developing precipitation chances 

confined to the western and central portions of SD. Otherwise, 

temperatures will continue to hover near to just above normal 

thresholds with highs mainly in the 20s to mid 30s through 

Wednesday. By Thursday, broad northerly flow aloft will help usher 

in a mid-level ridge. Increasing warm air advection (WAA) on the 

backside of the ridge will help temperatures approach their warmest 

points for the week with highs mainly in the 40s to low 50s expected.

Otherwise, a dry cold front will swing through the region by late

Thursday slightly decreasing our temperatures into the weekend.



THE WEEKEND: Heading into the weekend, upper-level ridging over the 

western conus will begin to break down shifting us back to 

northwesterly flow aloft. The pattern will remain active aloft with 

another weak wave swinging through between Saturday and Sunday with 

limited precipitation chances (<10%). However, temperatures will 

continue to hover in 30s to mid 40s through Sunday as the quieter 

conditions continue.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1101 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



MVFR stratus will prevail for the first half of this period due to a 

layer of stratus. Winds are light and variable. Guidance has 

continued to indicated that patchy fog may be possible near day 

break. If fog develops it will be scattered and patchy in nature, so 

have included TEMPO groups to cover it.



Near the end of the period a wave will move through the region from 

the northwest to the southeast, producing light snow. As snow 

showers move in ceilings and visibilities will fall to low MVFR to 

IFR.



&&



.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...05

AVIATION...AJP