FXUS63 KFGF 272323

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

623 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain continues spreading east this afternoon. The probability

  for an additional 1 inch or more is around 80 percent in the 

  Devils Lake area, with lower amounts expected elsewhere.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Rain has spread almost as far east as Bagley and Bemidji, key

work being almost. expected amounts haven't really changed with

all areas still at at least half an inch with most areas west of

the Red River Valley only looking to pick up another couple

tenths to a half inch before rain ends tonight. Also seeing some

lower visibilities in central North Dakota on webcams than 

might be expected for stratiform rain so will have to be on the 

lookout fog in the next couple hours and will handle that as 

needed if it manifests.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



...Synopsis...



An upper low, situated in southern Saskatchewan, continues to slowly 

move eastward this afternoon, with an H5 trough extending southeast 

into the Northern Plains. This will serve to keep rain in the 

forecast across much of the area tonight through much of Tuesday. 

The highest probabilities for heavier rain continue to favor the 

Devils Lake region, as well as portions of the northern Red River 

Valley. Winds continue to gusts upwards of 30-35 mph, but have thus 

far remained below advisory criteria across the area. The strongest 

winds this afternoon will be in southeast North Dakota and portions 

of the central Red River Valley.



Looking further into the week, another upper wave traverses the area 

as we head into Thursday and Friday, bringing precipitation chances 

back into the region. Most ensemble members suggest all rain; 

however, there is a low chance for a rain/snow mix heading into 

Friday morning.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 0100Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Conditions certainly vary by site but mostly MVFR ceilings with

patchy IFR. DVL should be climbing into MVFR within the next few

hours with BJI the only other site with a significant chance to

reach IFR between 7am and 7pm Tuesday. Visibility is highly

variable with webcams showing anywhere from 1-2sm all to the 

way to 4-5sm in areas of lighter rain so best case seems to be 

MVFR in areas of light rain to IFR in areas of heavier 

stratiform rain with these being more temporary than prevailing.

Winds have already turned northerly at DVL but elsewhere GFK 

and FAR will flip between 1 and 6am with TVF closer to 8am and 

BJI not until after noon. Other than all that just a typical 

late fall day in northern plains....



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...TT

DISCUSSION...Lynch

AVIATION...TT