FXUS63 KFGF 271737 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread soaking rain thru Tuesday, heaviest/most intense rainfall rates will be Devils Lake-Langdon areas where probs of 1 inch or more are 80 percent and probs of 2 inches 20 percent. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Light rain continues to work slowly eastward this afternoon, with showers now reaching into the Red River Valley. Winds continue out of the south to southeast, with a few gusts to near 30 mph. UPDATE Issued at 723 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 No changes made to the forecast grids....rain area as expected Minot east to DVL. Moving NNE. Will take its time moving east later today....so pops in the eastern part may need to be adjusted thru the day for better timing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...Synopsis... Main 500 mb l ow is in northwest Saskatchewan. A 100-120 kt 300 mb jet is from off the Oregon coast into southern Wyoming and Colorado with 70 kt 500 mb jet in same area. A short wave on the front left quad of this 500/300 mb jet over Wyoming will swing northeast into eastern/central ND by 06z Tues, in between Grand Forks and Bismarck/Minot. It is in between Grand Forks and Minot where the max rainfall is forecast and where the max 700 and 800 mb frontogenetical forcing will be seen with strong values noted near Devils Lake, Rugby northeast to Langdon this afternoon and evening and north into southern Manitoba tonight. Models have all focused the axis of heaviest rainfall in this strong forcing zone with probs of 1 inch or more 80 percent Devils Lake to Langdon, with probs of 2 inches or more 20 percent. Farther east you go the less forcing there will be as short wave swings northeast tonight, so while it will rain all areas the intensity will be lighter with rainfall totals less with sub 1 inch values noted in NW MN to Grand Forks and 0.50 inch or so farther south/east thru west central MN and SE ND. Rainfall ends gradually Tuesday from the west, but will likely take til late in the day in eastern fcst area. Winds today, will be near advisory criteria as 925 mb winds are 30-35 kts and 850 mb winds 45-50 kts maxing eastern RRV. Soundings at Fargo and Grand Forks show a shallow mixed layer for winds up thru 950 mb. If we can tap into higher winds up closer to 900 mb or 850 mb then advisory conditions may occur for a time mid morning to mid aftn in the central or northern RRV, northwest MN. No significant weather the rest of the week after this system. Cooling down toward Halloween but no significant precipitation anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Conditions range from MVFR to IFR this afternoon as showers continue to push eastward into the region. KDVL has seen several hours of rain thus far, with continued chances extending through the afternoon and evening. Further east, KGFK is just starting to report rain, with the expectation of light rain and showers through the afternoon and evening. For KFAR, KTVF, and KBJI, rain will start later this afternoon and persist through much of the evening and overnight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch/TT DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Lynch