FXUS63 KFGF 271225

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

725 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread soaking rain thru Tuesday, heaviest/most intense

  rainfall rates will be Devils Lake-Langdon areas where probs

  of 1 inch or more are 80 percent and probs of 2 inches 20 

  percent.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 723 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



No changes made to the forecast grids....rain area as expected

Minot east to DVL. Moving NNE. Will take its time moving east

later today....so pops in the eastern part may need to be

adjusted thru the day for better timing. 





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



...Synopsis...



Main 500 mb l ow is in northwest Saskatchewan. A 100-120 kt 300

mb jet is from off the Oregon coast into southern Wyoming and

Colorado with 70 kt 500 mb jet in same area. A short wave on the

front left quad of this 500/300 mb jet over Wyoming will swing

northeast into eastern/central ND by 06z Tues, in between Grand

Forks and Bismarck/Minot. It is in between Grand Forks and Minot

where the max rainfall is forecast and where the max 700 and 800

mb frontogenetical forcing will be seen with strong values noted

near Devils Lake, Rugby northeast to Langdon this afternoon and

evening and north into southern Manitoba tonight. Models have

all focused the axis of heaviest rainfall in this strong

forcing zone with probs of 1 inch or more 80 percent Devils Lake

to Langdon, with probs of 2 inches or more 20 percent. Farther

east you go the less forcing there will be as short wave swings

northeast tonight, so while it will rain all areas the intensity

will be lighter with rainfall totals less with sub 1 inch 

values noted in NW MN to Grand Forks and 0.50 inch or so farther

south/east thru west central MN and SE ND. 



Rainfall ends gradually Tuesday from the west, but will likely

take til late in the day in eastern fcst area.  



Winds today, will be near advisory criteria as 925 mb winds are

30-35 kts and 850 mb winds 45-50 kts maxing eastern RRV.

Soundings at Fargo and Grand Forks show a shallow mixed layer

for winds up thru 950 mb. If we can tap into higher winds up

closer to 900 mb or 850 mb then advisory conditions may occur

for a time mid morning to mid aftn in the central or northern

RRV, northwest MN.  



No significant weather the rest of the week after this system.

Cooling down toward Halloween but no signifcant precipitation

anticipated at this time.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 723 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



In rain, look for ceilings to drop into MVFR range and

eventually IFR range. So timed that progression at the TAF

sites. Timing will probably be off a bit and future amendments

will be needed to time that better. South-southeast winds 15-25

kts today, gusts 30 kts in the RRV.  



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...TT

DISCUSSION...Riddle

AVIATION...Riddle