FXUS63 KFGF 270428

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

1128 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- High confidence in a widespread soaking rainfall Monday and

  Tuesday, 80% chance for greater than 1" in parts of northeast

  North Dakota with isolated areas of greater than 2" likley.



&&



UPDATE

Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



No major forecast changes. 00z cams beginning to roll in are

showing a now consistent signal for fgen across central and

northeast North Dakota Monday with rain totals exceeding 1.5-2"

looking likely through spatial extent will depend on how

transient banding is. Currently looks to more stationary than

transient in nature but a lot can change in the next 12-18 

hours still.



UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



Winds dropping off to the point the wind advisory was allowed 

to expire at 6pm though gusts of 25-30 mph are still expected 

within the Valley tonight and another surge of 35+ mph gusts is 

possible in the afternoon on Monday. The rest of the forecast 

remains on track with rain expected to begin in the Devil Lake 

basin no later than 5am and working towards the state border by 

noon.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



...Synopsis...



Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to pick up tonight as

upper ridging moves east. A lead shortwave will start to move

out into the Northern Plains tomorrow, bringing increasing

precipitation chances. The main trough comes out into the Plains

and starts to develop into a split flow Tuesday, with the

main upper low moving well to our south and blocky upper level

ridging over the Upper Midwest. A northern branch shortwave will

dive down out of Canada into the Northern Plains on Thursday,

with the main upper low along the Manitoba/Ontario border by

Friday. Weekend pattern is still in flux with a lot of variation

between the ensemble members, but should be trending towards

northwesterly flow aloft by Sunday.



...Winds this afternoon and evening...



Gusts have been up to around 40 to 42 mph in the Fergus

Falls/Rothsay area, so expanded the wind advisory a bit further

to the southeast. There was one report around 1815Z at

Cooperstown of a gust to 58 mph but given the isolated nature of

the report and has not repeated since, have not upgraded to a

high wind warning. Bufkit soundings for the Red River Valley

counties show good momentum transfer through 5 or even 6 pm, and

could see some pretty high gusts continuing. Have the advisory

going a bit longer, although the western edge may be starting to

come down before sunset. Winds will continue to be quite strong

into tomorrow as the surface trough axis approaches, but not

confident enough to go with a double headline at this point.



...Rain Monday and Tuesday...



With the lead shortwave on Monday and the main trough on

Tuesday, there will be ample moderate synoptic lift for the

early part of the week. There continues to be a good signal for

mesoscale banding as mid-level frontogenesis sets up over

central or eastern ND. CAMs have some pretty high precipitation

totals, and agree that a narrow band of 1.5 to two inches will

be possible. At this point the highest probabilities of over 1

or over 2 inches from the HREF look to be from the western  

Devils Lake Basin into the Langdon area. However, best chances

for heavier rainfall amounts will continue to shift so will

monitor.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



Rain still expected to trail MVFR ceilings by an hour or two for

all sites with MVFR cigs for all and a medium (60%) chance for 

IFR cigs Monday at DVL with a low (30%) chance for all other

sites to reach IFR though due to visibilities dropping via rain

rather than due to cigs. Winds will be a persistentsoutherly

15-20kts for all through the taf period other than DVL where

winds will flip northerly around 00z Monday night at about

20kts. Other hazards include a low chance for thunderstorms near

the terminal at FAR in the afternoon and near term LLWS at BJI

though a BL that hasnt really decoupled is likely negating the

potential for LLWS to actually be realized there.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...TT

DISCUSSION...JR

AVIATION...TT