FXUS63 KFGF 221123

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

623 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures will vary sharply from north to south for at 

  least the next several days as a strong thermal boundary 

  remains in place.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Update for 12z TAF aviation discussion. No change to messaging

has been needed. 



UPDATE

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



The earlier band weakened/broke apart as advertised, with less

organized/fast moving rain/snow showers lingering in the far 

southern RRV. There are a couple moderate showers upstream that

may bring a brief wintry mix to far southeast ND, however with 

temperatures above freezing impacts would be minimal (if any). 



UPDATE

Issued at 847 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



700MB frontogenesis has helped organized a band of light to

moderate snow over northeast ND and far northwest MN (along the

Highway 2 corridor) which is progressing southeast. Webcams and

surface reports show brief visibility reductions below mile 

(most locations 1-3 miles) and some indications on webcams of 

light slushy accumulations. This is progressing quickly and 

drier mid levels/limited moisture advection will limit duration 

of any higher rates that may be occuring as this moves across 

our region. Short range CAMs generally show this 

disorganizing/weakening as it moves across the southern RRV 

after midnight, though so far they haven't done a great job 

until current runs on reflecting current coverage/organization.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



...Synopsis...



Cooler air works into the area tonight following a brief period of 

light rain/snow mix. North to northwest winds prevail into Sunday, 

then shift to the south on Monday. A strong baroclinic zone is 

expected to remain in place across the northern CONUS, with much 

colder air to the north and warm air to the south. As such, 

temperatures will vary greatly from north to south. Look for a 

rebound into the 50s for areas in southeast North Dakota, with highs 

in the upper 30s to low 40s in northwest Minnesota on Monday. 

Tuesday brings similar temps, with a slightly warmer day on 

Wednesday. Another cold front brings a chance for precipitation 

Wednesday into Thursday; however, confidence remains somewhat low as 

ensemble guidance has higher than average disagreement, as well as 

several potential scenarios. Heading into Friday and the weekend, 

additional uncertainty surrounds another potential trough passage 

and cold front.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Expect some holes of clearing as we go thru the day,  but more

widespread this evening. Ceilings will be in the 2000 to 3500 ft

agl today and thus often going back and forth over/under 3000 ft

VFR/MVFR categories. North winds 8 to 18 kts sustained. Few

gusts 20 kts this morning.  Overall light winds tonight. 



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...DJR

DISCUSSION...Lynch

AVIATION...Riddle