FXUS63 KFGF 220431

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

1131 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures will vary sharply from north to south for at 

  least the next several days as a strong thermal boundary 

  remains in place.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



The earlier band weakened/broke apart as advertised, with less

organized/fast moving rain/snow showers lingering in the far 

southern RRV. There are a couple moderate showers upstream that

may bring a brief wintry mix to far southeast ND, however with 

temperatures above freezing impacts would be minimal (if any). 



UPDATE

Issued at 847 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



700MB frontogenesis has helped organized a band of light to

moderate snow over northeast ND and far northwest MN (along the

Highway 2 corridor) which is progressing southeast. Webcams and

surface reports show brief visibility reductions below mile 

(most locations 1-3 miles) and some indications on webcams of 

light slushy accumulations. This is progressing quickly and 

drier mid levels/limited moisture advection will limit duration 

of any higher rates that may be occuring as this moves across 

our region. Short range CAMs generally show this 

disorganizing/weakening as it moves across the southern RRV 

after midnight, though so far they haven't done a great job 

until current runs on reflecting current coverage/organization.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



...Synopsis...



Cooler air works into the area tonight following a brief period of 

light rain/snow mix. North to northwest winds prevail into Sunday, 

then shift to the south on Monday. A strong baroclinic zone is 

expected to remain in place across the northern CONUS, with much 

colder air to the north and warm air to the south. As such, 

temperatures will vary greatly from north to south. Look for a 

rebound into the 50s for areas in southeast North Dakota, with highs 

in the upper 30s to low 40s in northwest Minnesota on Monday. 

Tuesday brings similar temps, with a slightly warmer day on 

Wednesday. Another cold front brings a chance for precipitation 

Wednesday into Thursday; however, confidence remains somewhat low as 

ensemble guidance has higher than average disagreement, as well as 

several potential scenarios. Heading into Friday and the weekend, 

additional uncertainty surrounds another potential trough passage 

and cold front.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Snow showers are exiting the region, and precipitation and 

reduced visibility chances are rapidly decreasing at TAF sites 

in eastern ND and northwest MN. There are still a few pockets of

lingering IFR ceilings, but they shouldn't last long early in 

the TAF period where they develop. MVFR ceilings should prevail 

through Sunday morning before prevailing VFR conditions return 

west to east midday into the afternoon (taking longer over parts

of northwest MN). Northerly winds should also decrease through 

the morning hours and eventually becoming light and variable as 

surface high pressure builds back over the region late Sunday. 

There is a low chance for radiational fog development once again

Sunday night, as surface high pressure would be in palace and 

there should at least be some shallow low level moisture 

lingering. However, so far guidance is not showing more than a 

spotty/inconsistent signal for this (low predictability and 

much lower coverage than previous fog events). 





&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...DJR

DISCUSSION...Lynch

AVIATION...DJR