FXUS63 KFGF 212331

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

631 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light rain/snow mix this afternoon into the evening. No

  impacts are expected. Temperatures will vary sharply from

  north to south for at least the next several days as a strong

  thermal boundary remains in place.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



...Synopsis...



Cooler air works into the area tonight following a brief period of 

light rain/snow mix. North to northwest winds prevail into Sunday, 

then shift to the south on Monday. A strong baroclinic zone is 

expected to remain in place across the northern CONUS, with much 

colder air to the north and warm air to the south. As such, 

temperatures will vary greatly from north to south. Look for a 

rebound into the 50s for areas in southeast North Dakota, with highs 

in the upper 30s to low 40s in northwest Minnesota on Monday. 

Tuesday brings similar temps, with a slightly warmer day on 

Wednesday. Another cold front brings a chance for precipitation 

Wednesday into Thursday; however, confidence remains somewhat low as 

ensemble guidance has higher than average disagreement, as well as 

several potential scenarios. Heading into Friday and the weekend, 

additional uncertainty surrounds another potential trough passage 

and cold front.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



IFR ceilings have moved across eastern ND and northwest MN

behind a cold front, along with gusty northerly winds. The main

area of IFR ceilings is beginning to transition south early in

the TAF period, with MVFR ceilings returning and prevailing

through Sunday morning across eastern ND and through the end of

the TAF period across northwest MN. Rain and snow showers are 

progressing into the region north of Highway 2 behind the cold 

front and will eventually transition south through the evening 

hours. Much of this activity is virga or very light, but there 

are reports over northwest ND of brief visibilities dropping 

with moderate showers and this can't be ruled out this evening 

as this activity passes (though location/duration of impacts are

more uncertain). 



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Lynch

AVIATION...DJR