FXUS63 KFGF 122309

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

509 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Arctic air continues to pour into the area this afternoon and

  evening, with dangerously cold wind chills through Sunday. For

  tonight, wind chills will fall as low as 45 below zero.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



...Synopsis...



North to northwest flow prevails today through Sunday, allowing 

Arctic air to settle into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 

Afternoon high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be well 

below average, with single digits below zero on Saturday and single 

digits to teens above zero on Sunday. The warmup on Sunday will 

arrive much later in the day, however, as warm air advection 

increases along west winds. This will also facilitate much warmer 

temperatures heading into next week a strong low to mid level jet 

brings downslope conditions into the Northern Rockies, then advects 

the warmer air mass into the Northern Plains. By Tuesday, guidance 

is bringing 850 mb temps well into the 5-10C range. At this time, 

surface temperatures are forecast to reach well into the 30s; 

however, there remains a bit of uncertainty regarding how the warmer 

air mass reacts to the relatively fresh snow pack. It is possible 

that we see the development of stratus and/or fog as a result, which 

would potentially limit the upper bounds of high temperatures. 

Following this warmup, there is moderate agreement between the 

ensembles regarding the development of a relatively strong upper low 

and clipper, thus bringing cold air back into the area heading into 

Wednesday evening. At this time, confidence is low in potential 

precipitation and the associated impacts.



...Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Through Sunday...



Wind chill values have already fallen well below zero across much of 

the area, with the coldest spots to the north of Highway 2 in North 

Dakota, and across portions of northwest Minnesota. Wind chills of 

40-45 below zero are already being observed, and are expected to 

continue overnight and into early Saturday morning. Surface 

temperatures during this period will be in the 20s below zero, with 

the exception of southeast North Dakota, where teens below zero are 

expected. Colder temperatures are expected Saturday night into 

Sunday, but with lower wind potential. Look for lows in the 20s 

below zero to near 30 below zero, with wind chills as low as 40 

below.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 508 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with winds

diminishing overnight tonight. Expect winds to increase once

more after sunrise tomorrow but winds will remain sustained

between 10-15 knots. As such, very limited impacts to aviation

can be expected.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for NDZ014-024-

     026>030-038-039-049-052-053.

     Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Saturday for NDZ006>008-

     015-016-054.

     Cold Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CST Sunday 

     for NDZ006>008-015-016-054.

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ001>003-006-

     027>032-040.

     Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Saturday for MNZ004-005-

     007>009-013>017-022>024.

     Cold Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CST Sunday 

     for MNZ004-005-007>009-013>017-022>024.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Lynch

AVIATION...Perroux