FXUS63 KFGF 092000 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 300 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions this evening in eastern North Dakota and all of northwest and west central Minnesota. - Near critical to critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions anticipated for all areas Sunday. A fire weather watch is in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...Synopsis... Cold front has finished pushing through the rest of the CWA, but a return to upper ridging and southeasterly surface winds for tonight. Southerly winds will continue to pick up tomorrow and into Sunday, with unusually hot temperatures expected for the weekend. The warmer than normal temperatures will continue into the first part of next week as southwesterly flow aloft sets up behind the amplifying ridge. Some increasing precipitation chances Wednesday with a few lead shortwaves coming out, then Thursday and Friday with the main upper low coming into the Plains. Details still hazy for mid to late week as moisture is a bit uncertain, but should see better precipitation chances and cooler temperatures. ...Near critical fire conditions this evening... Red River Valley is seeing sustained winds around 20 mph in some places, with lighter speeds to the west and east. RH values range from the teens right behind the cold front to around 30 percent near the Canadian border where temperatures are cooler. Smoke from Canadian wildfires is also still an issue in a few places, including Fargo. Conditions will continue to be near critical through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, then begin to improve around sunset as winds come down and RH values come up. ...Critical to near critical fire weather conditions over the weekend... Winds will shift around to the southeast then south and pick back up tomorrow, with continued strengthening as the surface trough deepens on Sunday. Still very warm and breezy for Saturday afternoon also, and many locations will be on the edge between near critical and critical fire weather conditions. Joint probabilities Saturday afternoon for RH values 20 percent or less, as well as winds over 20 mph, is 40 to 50 percent in portions of the Devils Lake Basin and northern Red River Valley. Thus, expanded watch further west. Sunday more of a slam dunk for fire weather as temperatures climb into the 90s and winds pick up to near advisory speed. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Ceilings are all VFR, but some smoke is causing IFR conditions at KDVL and KGFK. KGFK has already started improving in visibility back up to MVFR, so should see all conditions returning to VFR by this evening. Winds that are gusting above 20 kts at some locations will begin to drop this evening, then shift back around to the east and then southeast by tomorrow morning. ND airports could be picking up on wind speed from the southeast with gusts to around 20 kts returning by the end of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Continuing near critical SPS and HWO for this afternoon and into the evening, as RH values dip into the 20s and even upper teens behind the cold front and winds remain sustained at 20 mph. Fire weather watch parts of northwestern MN and northeastern ND Saturday, but further south conditions will be near critical. Sunday is a day where strong south winds with gusts 35-45 mph combine with very warm to hot temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s to bring low RH values into the teens to low 20s. Fire weather watch all areas Sunday for likely critical conditions. Similar conditions may exist on Monday as well. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Record High Temperatures: May 11 (Sunday): Grand Forks NWS/UND: 95/1906 KGFK: 88/1977 KFAR: 93/1906 KPKD: 87/1900 KBDE: 83/1991 May 12 (Monday): KPKD: 89/1906 KBDE: 85/1991 && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for MNZ001-004>009-013>016. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for MNZ002-003-017-022>024-027>032-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR FIRE WEATHER...Riddle/TT CLIMATE...Riddle/TT